Polar r: obs, elements and dk prediction

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I observed Polar r last night as follows:
       Site 2707 using 8x50B
            UTC       RA  (1950.0) Dec
       21:23:51.2   05 34 50    +21 10 34     Mag 4 st
       21:24:10.4   06 16 20    +14 33 07

I make this 46s late with respect to my SatEvo orbit evolution given
in my previous "Decay update" posting, but only 3s early with respect
to a prediction from the latest available OIG orbit (for 96117.43).

A SatEvo evolution of the latter orbit, with ndot adjusted to satisfy
my observations, results in the following predicted elements:
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96118.80849307  .02618404  14793-2  74742-3 0 91370
2 23803  85.8980 349.7328 0138070  38.2090 322.7618 16.08098693  9742
Polar r
1 23803U 96013B   96119.05730400  .02735547  16716-2  75883-3 0 91373
2 23803  85.8975 349.5779 0132895  37.1536 323.7572 16.09430225  9782
Polar r  
1 23803U 96013B   96120.05034205  .03406154  30665-2  81320-3 0 91377
2 23803  85.8953 348.9560 0109838  32.9201 327.7594 16.15461905  9944
Polar r  
1 23803U 96013B   96121.03917085  .04756966  69415-2  78971-3 0 91375
2 23803  85.8924 348.3304 0080569  28.6631 331.7749 16.23392376 10101

Decay is now predicted for May 1.2.

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224

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