Re: Decay of #24666 = 96- 67 B (Centaur r)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 6 Apr 1997 16:17:48 +0100

This Centaur rocket has only a few hours left. The latest OIG elset is:
Centaur r                                        2828 x 94 km
1 24666U 96067B   97096.52773893  .05598964 -30667-4  13317-3 0  2171
2 24666  23.6771 122.5095 1743151 307.0668  38.1972 12.50876952  3792
but the ndot2 term should be very much higher, probably closer to 
1.684 than 0.056! The elset implies that it is running 6.6 minutes late
on my previous prediction.

My SatEvo analysis suggests that decay should occur in daylight at 
April 7.10 (02.24 UTC) over the S Central Pacific near 13.7 degrees
South, 146.1 degrees West on a track taking it towards Nicaragua in
Central America.

Predicted elsets:
Centaur r                                        2381 x 101 km
1 24666U 96067B   97096.68475433 2.04627058  10298+1  57884-2 0 92061
2 24666  23.6535 121.6738 1496042 309.2160  38.4167 13.05329433  3819
Centaur r                                        2130 x 101 km
1 24666U 96067B   97096.76053905 2.31832281  14127+1  61065-2 0 92063
2 24666  23.6471 121.2755 1353448 309.9107  38.9462 13.38289644  3822
Centaur r                                        1861 x 101 km
1 24666U 96067B   97096.83439879 2.70511651  22336+1  65273-2 0 92063
2 24666  23.6377 120.8665 1195263 310.6242  39.5717 13.75195318  3836
Centaur r                                        1563 x 101 km
1 24666U 96067B   97096.90619328 3.31431831  36106+1  71857-2 0 92064
2 24666  23.6293 120.4446 1013344 311.3602  40.3520 14.18023840  3844
Centaur r                                        1221 x 101 km
1 24666U 96067B   97096.97569597 4.26729819  70288+1  79485-2 0 92068
2 24666  23.6192 120.0069 0795260 312.1238  41.3809 14.69963173  3856
Centaur r                                        788 x 101 km
1 24666U 96067B   97097.04254384 6.91051498  25192+2  97737-2 0 92062
2 24666  23.6098 119.5476 0503027 312.9253  42.9590 15.40585950  3867

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224