SatEvo decay list #51
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 4 Apr 1998 19:40:42 +0100
SatEvo decay list #51 (issued 1998 April 4)
This further list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and
analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L,
and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellite.visual-observe.
Information about SeeSat-L is available at
http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
The "Actual" decay dates are my estimates based on the published
orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
Pegasus debris objects are included here if I anticipate their decay
by May 15. Other objects are included to June 15, although I include
several larger and/or more interesting decayers beyond that date.
This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via
my SatEvo page at
http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
In addition you can find current elsets for the still-to-decay
objects below, together with other objects of interest, including
Mir, the Iridium satellites and all recently launched/catalogued
objects. These files are mirrored for anonymous FTP access at
ftp://ftp.satellite.eu.org/pub/sat/mirrors/pickup/
and are updated several times daily.
# Designation Name ----- Decay (1998) -----
Predicted Actual?
22587 93- 11 E M-3S2 deb March 23
24548 94- 29 WY STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 24
19380 88- 69 D Molniya 1-73 r2 March 25? Note 2
23896 86- 17 KP Mir deb March 26.30
22774 89- 89 AK COBE deb March 27
25266 98- 18 E Iridium 51 CSL02 deb March 29.17
25268 98- 18 G Iridium 51 CSL02 deb March 30.12
24874 97- 34 F Iridium 15 Delta r March 30.20
25267 98- 18 F Iridium 51 CSL02 deb March 30.2
24079 94- 29 EA STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 30
24353 94- 29 PE STEP-2 Pegasus deb March 31.1
25269 98- 18 H Iridium 51 CZ deb April 2? Note 3
19297 76-103 F Cosmos 860 deb April 3.0
25150 92- 72 E Galaxy 7 Ariane deb April 5? Note 1
24144 94- 29 GT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 6.5
24041 94- 29 CN STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 7
25140 86- 17 MK Mir deb April 7
25238 98- 13 B Hot Bird 4 Ariane r April 8
24188 94- 29 JP STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 9
24364 94- 29 PR STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 9
24574 94- 29 YA STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11
24997 94- 29 ADE STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 11
21892 92- 9 C Navstar 24 r2 (PAM-D) April 12
24615 94- 29 ZT STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 14
25142 86- 17 ML Mir deb April 14
24970 97- 56 F Iridium 19 Delta r April 18
24035 94- 29 CG STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 22
24423 94- 29 SB STEP-2 Pegasus deb April 24
25264 98- 18 C Iridium 51 CZ-2C r April 25
20132 88- 98 C TDF 1 Ariane 2 deb April 26
23063 89- 89 BJ COBE deb April 26? Note 1
25250 87- 68 BT Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb April 29? Note 1
23193 94- 47 B DBS 2 Atlas Centaur r April 30
22943 83- 75 AG Cosmos 1484 deb May 1
25044 97- 69 F Iridium 43 Delta r May 2
25277 98- 19 F Iridium 55 Delta r May 3
22852 89- 89 AP COBE deb May 4
24991 94- 29 ACY STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 4
23910 86- 17 KY Mir deb May 6
25283 86- 17 MM Mir deb May 6
21057 91- 3 C Italsat 1 Ariane r May 8? Note 4
21895 92- 10 C Superbird B1 Ariane r May 12
24083 94- 29 EE STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 12
24554 94- 29 XE STEP-2 Pegasus deb May 14
25265 98- 18 D Iridium 51 CS02 S/D May 16
24747 97- 10 D Zeya deb May 22
23069 89- 89 BQ COBE deb May 24
23085 89- 89 CG COBE deb May 25
24958 97- 58 C Sputnik-40 May 26
15344 71-120 F Meteor 1-10 SL-3 deb May 29
24419 86- 17 LV Mir deb May 29
24787 97- 19 B GOES 10 Centaur r June 3
24746 97- 10 C Zeya deb June 4
24294 96- 50 D Interbol 2 Molniya-M r July
24649 96- 62 B Mars GS Delta 2 r July
25109 97- 82 F Iridium 45 Delta r July
12519 81- 54 E Molniya 3-16 r2 August
25174 98- 10 F Iridium 50 Delta r September
Notes
1. No recent elsets.
2. #19380 (88- 69 D = Molniya 1-73 r2). No elsets since the suspect ones
of March 13. I now believe that this decayed in late-March. The decay
date above is very uncertain.
3. #25269 (98- 18 H = Iridiums 51 CZ deb). Two early elsets were
published, then it seems to have been lost. The decay date is
uncertain.
4. #21057 (91- 3 C = Italsat 1 Ariane r). The latest elsets (March 31
and April 1) suggest decay about April 7, but I suspect that these
are spurious.
5. Objects predicted in my previous decay list, but missing this time:
#25207 (87- 68 AJ = Meteor 2-16 SL-14 deb). The latest elset, issued
after an 11-day gap, is inconsistent with earlier ones and
suggests that the original object has been lost and subsequently
misidentified.
#23549 (95- 18 A = Ofeq 3) was boosted from a 519x354 km orbit to one
of 518x496 km in two stages between March 22 and March 26. In its
new orbit, it may survive for another two years.
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo satellite page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/