Decay watch: 4 rockets

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Tue, 21 Apr 1998 20:52:56 +0100

My calculations suggest that two Centaur rockets are to decay during the
next few hours, followed by two Iridium rockets on April 24/25.

The latest elsets for all four objects are:
DBS2 Centaur r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            576 x 104 km
1 23193U 94047B   98111.68397233  .23522605  00000-0  30225-3 0  2930
2 23193  26.8176 250.0912 0351348 100.6881 263.4003 15.76804659 70250
GOES 10 Centaur r                                1821 x 105 km
1 24787U 97019B   98111.41496815  .99999999  00000-0  28804-2 0  3509
2 24787  28.0258 307.4288 1168543 107.3960 265.8320 13.80226179  9375
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            273 x 193 km
1 25044U 97069F   98111.67918154  .01435921  00000-0  78644-3 0  2414
2 25044  83.5319 344.5074 0060322  90.7794 270.1104 16.15136328 25583
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            315 x 147 km
1 25264U 98018C   98111.67752245  .02739124  00000-0  24846-3 0   898
2 25264  86.3683 359.6344 0127193  64.6406 296.8685 16.15870158  4244


DBS2 Centaur, #23193.
Decay predicted for about April 22.39 (~09:15 UTC +-3.5h).
Predicted elsets:
DBS2 Centaur r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            507 x 102 km
1 23193U 94047B   98111.87294715  .34188057  11431+0  38316-3 0 92930
2 23193  26.8157 248.6729 0303013 103.0579 260.3414 15.89112918 70284
DBS2 Centaur r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            428 x 102 km
1 23193U 94047B   98112.06038208  .43260849  22611+0  43103-3 0 92937
2 23193  26.8131 247.2400 0244819 105.4521 257.2649 16.03438383 70311
DBS2 Centaur r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            322 x 102 km
1 23193U 94047B   98112.24585952  .64546671  55196+0  51897-3 0 92936
2 23193  26.8096 245.7886 0166376 107.8775 253.9439 16.22816685 70349
DBS2 Centaur r   5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            207 x 102 km
1 23193U 94047B   98112.36795522 1.29114199  60014+1  68693-3 0 92931
2 23193  26.8062 244.8062 0080437 109.5192 251.3513 16.44130001 70365

GEOS 10 Centaur, #24787
Decay is imminent at about April 21.91 (~21.50 UTC +-3h).
Predicted elsets:
GOES 10 Centaur r                                1046 x 105 km
1 24787U 97019B   98111.76142138 2.21951945  20987+1  43974-2 0 93509
2 24787  28.0014 305.3467 0676713 110.8122 256.5642 14.97245348  9420
GOES 10 Centaur r                                848 x 105 km
1 24787U 97019B   98111.82711032 2.79195839  42793+1  48668-2 0 93500
2 24787  27.9940 304.9055 0542308 111.5362 254.3293 15.29739705  9430
GOES 10 Centaur r                                592 x 105 km
1 24787U 97019B   98111.89113826 4.45908500  16814+2  61988-2 0 93502
2 24787  27.9870 304.4518 0362332 112.2808 251.6002 15.73613849  9449

Iridium 43 Delta 2 rocket, #25044
Decay is now predicted for April 25.5 +-0.8d.
Predicted elsets:
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            267 x 191 km
1 25044U 97069F   98112.05072139  .01796921  14215-2  90946-3 0 92414
2 25044  83.5314 344.1393 0057279  89.2495 271.4068 16.16518838 25647
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            259 x 189 km
1 25044U 97069F   98112.54567063  .02040225  18917-2  92452-3 0 92410
2 25044  83.5308 343.6479 0052956  87.2068 273.3991 16.18412242 25729
Iridm 43 Delta r 5.9  2.4  0.0  5.6 d            250 x 186 km
1 25044U 97069F   98113.04000056  .02366802  24926-2  93754-3 0 92415
2 25044  83.5300 343.1555 0048252  85.1608 275.3900 16.20583798 25801

Iridium 51 Long March rocket, #25264
Decay predicted for April 24.4 +-0.6d.
Predicted elsets:
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            302 x 146 km
1 25264U 98018C   98112.04876403  .03400528  28140-2  27797-3 0 90891
2 25264  86.3674 359.4271 0118228  63.0377 298.1650 16.18394258  4309
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            284 x 145 km
1 25264U 98018C   98112.54288657  .03896564  40713-2  27746-3 0 90897
2 25264  86.3661 359.1501 0105117  60.8953 300.1531 16.21985341  4389
Ir 51 CZ-2C r   12.0  3.5  0.0  4.3 d            262 x 144 km
1 25264U 98018C   98113.03583146  .04609229  54876-2  27375-3 0 90897
2 25264  86.3646 358.8720 0090156  58.7462 302.1339 16.26163016  4467

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W    156m asl
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