Decay watch: Apr 5

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 5 Apr 1999 22:34:34 +0100

OIG's database has started to make fresh elsets available again after
its usual weekend holiday. It seems, though, that any further SpaceCom
decay warnings for the Soyuz have been missed.
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Object: #25665 = 99- 15 B = Progress M-41 Soyuz-U r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  2 18:19     Apr  4 04:59 +-21h       39.0 N   122.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr  2 22:18     Apr  3 16:37 +-11h       25.3 S    95.7 W

SatEvo     Apr  2 19:45     Apr  5 02:25 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr  2 23:15     Apr  4 09:58 +-12h       49.1 S    45.4 W      
SatEvo     Apr  3 20:45     Apr  4 12:05 +-6h        51.7 N    72.7 E      
SatEvo     Apr  5 21:20     Apr  4 11:04 +-80m       12.6 S   166.9 W      

Final elset?:
Prog M-41 Soyuz r                                167 x 152 km
1 25665U 99015B   99094.18559018  .12339136  12501-4  52811-3 0   224
2 25665  51.6287   2.9232 0011504  80.5257 279.7069 16.42543774   284

Note: It is possible that further elsets will be posted. The final one
above shows it running 6 seconds early against my last SatEvo 
prediction. I put decay on a southbound pass over the central Pacific.
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Object: #7418 = 74- 66 B = Cosmos 673 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  3 14:52     Apr 11 18:14 +-5d        75.8 S    31.4 E

SatEvo     Apr  3 21:15     Apr 14 15:00 +-3d
SatEvo     Apr  5 21:30     Apr 14 15:00 +-2.5d

Latest elset:
Cosmos 673 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v            249 x 234 km
1 07418U 74066B   99095.23975676  .00722697  29364-3  67434-3 0  9234
2 07418  81.1953 190.2902 0011098 254.1642 105.8416 16.12087975357102
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/