Decay watch: Apr 16

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 16 Apr 1999 22:57:16 +0100

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Object: #14329 = 83- 94 B = Satcom 2R Delta 1 r

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr  8 20:00     Apr 15 16:32 +-4d        17.9 S     6.4 E
SpaceCom   Apr 11 21:32     Apr 15 20:46 +-2d         3.1 S   107.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 12 23:35     Apr 15 22:16 +-2d         0.9 N   122.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 13 22:29     Apr 15 21:10 +-1d        25.4 N    13.0 W
SpaceCom   Apr 14 22:18     Apr 15 22:35 +-15h       25.1 N    50.5 W
SpaceCom   Apr 15 18:22     Apr 16 00:21 +-6h        10.9 N     0.0 E
SpaceCom   Apr 15 22:49     Apr 16 00:54 +-1h        23.6 S   129.1 E
SpaceCom   Apr 16 02:04     Apr 16 00:55 +-1h        22.3 S   135.4 E

SatEvo     Apr  9 21:45     Apr 15 14:00 +-1.5d
SatEvo     Apr 11 19:55     Apr 15 15:15 +-1d
SatEvo     Apr 12 19:55     Apr 15 13:47 +-15h       23.9 N   117.7 E
SatEvo     Apr 13 19:45     Apr 15 20:57 +-15h       21.4 N    50.1 W
SatEvo     Apr 14 21:00     Apr 15 22:39 +-6h        23.3 N    15.2 W
SatEvo     Apr 15 19:40     Apr 16 00:28 +-2h         8.8 S    39.7 E
SatEvo     Apr 16 21:30     Apr 16 01:52 +-90m        3.1 S     5.9 E

Final elset:
Satcm2R Del 1 r  6.4  2.0  0.0  5.0 d            168 x 144 km
1 14329U 83094B   99105.92553425  .10618865 -12682-4  30919-3 0   346
2 14329  25.4301  52.4242 0018239 116.3241 243.9455 16.43788146725820

Note: The final elset has it running 15 seconds late on the SatEvo
prediction I posted here yesterday. I put decay one orbit later than I
did then, but I've found it impossible to find a SatEvo evolution that
satisfies all the final elsets - hence the uncertainty in the decay
estimate.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/