Decay update: late Apr 29 (Molniya 3-16 r2)

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Thu, 29 Apr 1999 23:47:13 +0100

Even nigher...
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Object: #12519 = 81- 54 E = Molniya 3-16 r2

Decay predictions:
Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
               UTC                UTC                  deg      deg

SpaceCom   Apr 22 12:05     Apr 29 12:41 +-1d         8.6 S    56.3 E
SpaceCom   Apr 26 13:27     Apr 30 09:35 +-2d         6.3 S   101.1 E
SpaceCom   Apr 27 07:48     Apr 30 07:49 +-2d        36.9 S   106.7 E
SpaceCom   Apr 28 11:01     Apr 30 06:16 +-1d        41.1 S   126.0 E
SpaceCom   Apr 29 06:25     Apr 30 06:49 +-15h       58.5 N   153.8 W
SpaceCom   Apr 29 15:24     Apr 30 03:25 +-2h        12.7 S   169.6 W
SpaceCom   Apr 29 21:37     Apr 30 03:27 +-4h         4.8 S   165.9 W

SatEvo     Apr 23 20:45     May  1 04:00 +-2d
SatEvo     Apr 26 18:30     May  1 19:04 +-1.3d      40.4 S    73.4 W
SatEvo     Apr 27 20:00     May  1 03:29 +-1d        41.6 S   162.2 E
SatEvo     Apr 28 20:45     May  1 00:27 +-16h       40.6 S   150.6 W
SatEvo     Apr 29 06:45     Apr 30 15:15 +-10h       41.8 S    12.1 W
SatEvo     Apr 29 19:35     Apr 30 09:12 +-6h        40.9 S    81.0 E
SatEvo     Apr 29 22:35     Apr 30 04:42 +-2h        42.8 S   147.4 E

Latest elset:
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  431 x 99 km
1 12519U 81054E   99119.91311007  .70177935  11432-4  67532-3 0  8187
2 12519  61.8478 106.1893 0249786 308.0587 150.2174 16.03473185100389

SatEvo prediction:
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  412 x 96 km
1 12519U 81054E   99119.95807138  .62525480  38288+0  51834-3 0 98156
2 12519  61.8580 105.9866 0238154 308.8897  49.0098 16.07354400100392
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  368 x 95 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.02017246  .71536137  62946+0  52694-3 0 98153
2 12519  61.8545 105.7304 0205917 308.9202  49.2617 16.15639588100403
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  316 x 94 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.08193956  .86886405  11931+1  54551-3 0 98157
2 12519  61.8516 105.4723 0168428 308.9510  49.5600 16.25324604100417
Molniya 3-16 r2                                  251 x 93 km
1 12519U 81054E   99120.14331030 1.23838205  37377+1  59953-3 0 98151
2 12519  61.8478 105.2118 0120449 308.9822  49.9511 16.37824742100424

Note: I observed this at 22:50 UTC this evening (Apr 29), varying 
from mag 5.5 to invisible (below mag 7.5 in moonlight) on a pass 
reaching 30 deg in the N at a distance of ~700 km.
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Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/