Decay watch: Apr 30
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Fri, 30 Apr 1999 20:53:55 +0100
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Object: #12519 = 81- 54 E = Molniya 3-16 r2
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 22 12:05 Apr 29 12:41 +-1d 8.6 S 56.3 E
SpaceCom Apr 26 13:27 Apr 30 09:35 +-2d 6.3 S 101.1 E
SpaceCom Apr 27 07:48 Apr 30 07:49 +-2d 36.9 S 106.7 E
SpaceCom Apr 28 11:01 Apr 30 06:16 +-1d 41.1 S 126.0 E
SpaceCom Apr 29 06:25 Apr 30 06:49 +-15h 58.5 N 153.8 W
SpaceCom Apr 29 15:24 Apr 30 03:25 +-2h 12.7 S 169.6 W
SpaceCom Apr 29 21:37 Apr 30 03:27 +-4h 4.8 S 165.9 W
SpaceCom Apr 30 01:36 Apr 30 03:25 +-2h 13.9 S 170.3 W
SpaceCom Apr 30 03:28 Apr 30 03:21 +-33m 25.2 S 176.4 W
SatEvo Apr 23 20:45 May 1 04:00 +-2d
SatEvo Apr 26 18:30 May 1 19:04 +-1.3d 40.4 S 73.4 W
SatEvo Apr 27 20:00 May 1 03:29 +-1d 41.6 S 162.2 E
SatEvo Apr 28 20:45 May 1 00:27 +-16h 40.6 S 150.6 W
SatEvo Apr 29 06:45 Apr 30 15:15 +-10h 41.8 S 12.1 W
SatEvo Apr 29 19:35 Apr 30 09:12 +-6h 40.9 S 81.0 E
SatEvo Apr 29 22:35 Apr 30 04:42 +-2h 42.8 S 147.4 E
SatEvo Apr 30 18:30 Apr 30 03:12 +-30m 45.4 S 167.0 E
Final elset:
Molniya 3-16 r2 431 x 99 km
1 12519U 81054E 99119.91311007 .70177935 11432-4 67532-3 0 8187
2 12519 61.8478 106.1893 0249786 308.0587 150.2174 16.03473185100389
Note: This is one that SpaceCom got correct and SatEvo came second :(
This was an almost unique test for SatEvo, and it clearly needs more
tuning to cope with deep perigee decayers like this.
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Object: #388 = 62- 39 D = FTV 3502 Scout r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Apr 27 00:20 May 3 18:06 +-4d 65.6 N 171.1 W
SpaceCom Apr 29 06:46 May 3 01:51 +-2d 79.5 N 38.4 E
SpaceCom Apr 29 22:12 May 2 22:42 +-2d 36.1 N 132.5 E
SatEvo Apr 27 19:45 May 4 00:00 +-2d
SatEvo Apr 29 19:50 May 3 11:00 +-1d
SatEvo Apr 30 19:05 May 3 01:27 +-18h
Latest elset:
FTV3502 Scout r 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 d 229 x 223 km
1 00388U 62039D 99120.47814531 .02229213 69922-2 16275-2 0 7052
2 00388 98.5326 335.1576 0004583 280.0677 80.0132 16.17526201974065
SatEvo predictions:
FTV3502 Scout r 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 d 221 x 216 km
1 00388U 62039D 99121.03444896 .02913030 41460-2 15092-2 0 97057
2 00388 98.5316 335.8865 0004150 277.8818 82.0711 16.20355248974153
FTV3502 Scout r 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 d 212 x 207 km
1 00388U 62039D 99121.52802981 .03696644 62053-2 14841-2 0 97056
2 00388 98.5304 336.5359 0003702 275.9336 84.0242 16.23589212974235
FTV3502 Scout r 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.5 d 201 x 196 km
1 00388U 62039D 99122.02049474 .05006895 13675-1 14085-2 0 97052
2 00388 98.5289 337.1872 0003169 273.9796 85.9842 16.27793523974310
Note: In future, and to avoid wasting (even more of) my time I propose
to estimate the SatEvo-predicted decay latitudes and longitudes only
during the final hours before a decay. I will still report SpaceCom's
estimates. FWIW, today's GSFC 60-Day Decay Forecast predicts the decay
of this on Apr 30 (!)
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Object: #8755 = 76- 24 B = Cosmos 808 r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SatEvo Apr 28 21:00 May 9 19:00 +-3d
SatEvo Apr 30 19:10 May 7 23:00 +-2d
Latest elset:
Cosmos 808 r 3.8 2.6 0.0 5.1 v 240 x 230 km
1 08755U 76024B 99120.13369010 .00731020 31506-3 58923-3 0 2431
2 08755 81.2111 143.0262 0007400 173.6169 186.5436 16.14322382276485
Note: The 60-Day DF has this decaying on May 1.
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Object: #22583 = 93- 17 C = GPS 2-19 r1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SatEvo Apr 30 19:15 May 4 21:00 +-2d
Latest elset:
GPS 2-19 r1 5.9 2.4 0.0 5.0 v 278 x 207 km
1 22583U 93017C 99120.48566958 .01503945 26340-5 10624-2 0 7677
2 22583 36.1419 106.5819 0054052 134.2160 226.3110 16.11573528328264
Note: Another decayer for May 1, according to the 60-Day DF.
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/