Decay watch: 2001 Apr 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Apr 02 2001 - 13:10:13 PDT

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    I've just brought my Decay Watch page up to date. Check it for more
    details of the following:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #19733 = 88-115 D = Molniya 1-74 r2
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr  2 11:46     Apr  2 11:34 +-27m       50.5 S   112.3 E
    SatEvo     Apr  2 19:55     Apr  2 11:24 +-15m       62.2 S    56.0 E
    
    Final elset:
    Molniya 1-74 r2                                  414 x 70 km
    1 19733U 88115D   01092.45154948  .99999999  83567-5  61927-3 0  7372
    2 19733  62.2941 155.5121 0259424 266.1123 226.2320 16.11806609 94295
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed near perigee on the above orbit,
    near southern apex to the S of the Indian Ocean.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23029 = 94- 16 C = GPS 2-24 r2 (PAM-D)
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 27 19:08     Mar 27 19:03 +-1h         2.2 S    83.9 E
    SatEvo     Apr  2 19:15     Mar 27 19:18 +-30m       33.8 N   156.9 E
    
    Final elset:
    GPS 2-24 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  3.1       244 x 122 km
    1 23029U 94016C   01086.66973143  .46732527  15583-5  73369-3 0  2728
    2 23029  34.5807 197.8090 0092664  51.9729 308.9410 16.33509051173851
    
    Note: I show this decaying as it approached northern apex to the east
    of Japan on the second of these SatEvo-predicted orbits:
    GPS 2-24 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  3.1       211 x 119 km
    1 23029U 94016C   01086.73066716  .68946607  21798+1  75456-3 0 92723
    2 23029  34.5793 197.3539 0070170  52.6333 308.0037 16.40447549173863
    GPS 2-24 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d  3.1       150 x 107 km
    1 23029U 94016C   01086.79125447 2.53313726  50000+2  10405-2 0 92723
    2 23029  34.5768 196.8954 0032872  53.2986 307.0029 16.54043016173875
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #23133 = 94- 35 B = UHF F/O 3 Centaur rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Apr  2 11:28     Apr  5 07:37 +-2d         7.5 N    88.2 W
    SatEvo     Apr  2 20:00     Apr  5 19:30 +-1d
    
    Latest elset:
    UHF F/O 3 r      8.0  3.0  0.0  3.5 v   23       832 x 140 km
    1 23133U 94035B   01092.39732639  .08305092 -73138-5  10307-2 0  2482
    2 23133  26.8282  74.7634 0504186  76.7726 187.1022 15.26684428158519
    
    SatEvo prediction: see Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 21 deg N in the 
    evening sky and leaves eclipse southbound near 5 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25013 = 97- 63 A = STEP M4
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Mar 31 00:38     Mar 31 00:58 +-6h        25.7 S    76.7 W
    SatEvo     Apr  2 19:30     Mar 30 23:37 +-2h         0.0      30.2 W
    
    Final elset:
    STEP M4          1.5  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  1.3       162 x 156 km
    1 25013U 97063A   01089.62019822  .07822626  10656-4  39615-3 0  8254
    2 25013  44.9280 156.8330 0005127 353.8866   6.2015 16.42627019194466
    
    Note: This appears to have been lost towards the end. I put the decay
    near the northbound equator crossing represented by the second of
    these SatEvo-predicted elsets:
    STEP M4          1.5  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  1.3       137 x 133 km
    1 25013U 97063A   01089.92356877  .31645038  12579+1  27728-3 0 98251
    2 25013  44.9258 154.8593 0002883 355.9862   4.0114 16.51542508194516
    STEP M4          1.5  0.0  0.0  7.0 d  1.3       116 x 114 km
    1 25013U 97063A   01089.98394620 2.72327031  50000+2  76142-3 0 98258
    2 25013  44.9247 154.4619 0001281 356.4091   3.5899 16.59417135194520
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Apr 02 2001 - 13:15:26 PDT