Decay Forecast Starshine 2

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Fri Apr 26 2002 - 05:14:00 EDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Starshine decay Update 10:00 UTC"

    Report time 08:50 UTC
    
    2001-054B (#26996) STARSHINE 2
    We have now a relatively consistent picture about the possible
    final orbit. Here the sum of predictions at this time:
    
    SPACECOM - Prepared 05:13 UTC
    26 April, 11:15 UTC +/- 05 hours (27.7N, 63.6E) descending
    
    NAVAL SPACE COMMAND - Epoch 00:31 UTC
    26 April, 11:18 UTC (19.2N, 71.4E)
    
    My own (MPM+REENTRY) - Epoch 01:54 UTC  
    26 April, 11:31 UTC +/- 22 minutes (24.71S, 105.12E) MSISE-2000
    descending.
    
    Remark: The last TLE for my own forecast has the epoch
    01:54 UTC.For the prediction I used a more conservative
    approach about the development of ap. 
    For a comparison also my results with the Jacchia-70 
    atmospheric model:
    26 April, 10:40 UTC +/- 22 minutes (00.71N.272.43E) ascending
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany
    
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