Decay Forecast Starshine 2

From: Harro Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Fri Apr 26 2002 - 05:14:00 EDT

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Report time 08:50 UTC

2001-054B (#26996) STARSHINE 2
We have now a relatively consistent picture about the possible
final orbit. Here the sum of predictions at this time:

SPACECOM - Prepared 05:13 UTC
26 April, 11:15 UTC +/- 05 hours (27.7°N, 63.6°E) descending

NAVAL SPACE COMMAND - Epoch 00:31 UTC
26 April, 11:18 UTC (19.2°N, 71.4°E)

My own (MPM+REENTRY) - Epoch 01:54 UTC  
26 April, 11:31 UTC +/- 22 minutes (24.71°S, 105.12°E) MSISE-2000
descending.

Remark: The last TLE for my own forecast has the epoch
01:54 UTC.For the prediction I used a more conservative
approach about the development of ap. 
For a comparison also my results with the Jacchia-70 
atmospheric model:
26 April, 10:40 UTC +/- 22 minutes (00.71°N.272.43°E) ascending

Harro

Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
Berlin, Germany

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