RE: STS 107 debris

From: Ted Molczan (molczan@rogers.com)
Date: Thu Apr 10 2003 - 12:47:07 EDT

  • Next message: Greg Roberts: "Obs 09 April 2003"

    Igor Lissov wrote:
    
    > As the separation occured later than
    > Ted Molczan thought it would be great if he returned
    > to his analysis and amended it.
    
    The separation was later than I had assumed, but not as late as implied by the
    OIG elset of 2003-003B, as I discussed here:
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Apr-2003/0080.html
    
    In my analysis of the debris (aka the mystery object), which is available at
    the URL below, I allowed for the possibility that it could have separated
    later. See the second to last paragraph of Section 2:
    
    http://www.satobs.org/columbia/STS107mysteryobject.html
    
    "It is worth noting that if I had assumed that separation occurred close to
    the time of the first observation, then the rate of decay would have been
    about 10 percent greater.
    
    The uncertainty of the time of decay (i.e. the location over the S. Pacific)
    results in +/-10 percent uncertainty in my estimate of the rate of decay."
    
    Last night, I analysed the OIG elset using the same method as in Section 3 of
    my report, and found that A/m was 0.049 m^2/kg - about 20 percent greater than
    the value derived from my estimated elset, well within the uncertainty in the
    rate of decay. One of my correspondents has obtained a value of 0.051 m^2/kg,
    using a different, probably more accurate method.
    
    Increasing the A/m to 0.049 m^2/kg or 0.051 m^2/kg does not change any of my
    findings concerning the possible identity of the mystery object. The A/m best
    fits the densest elements of a shuttle's thermal protection system: a fragment
    of an RCC panel or an aluminium carrier panel without its tiles.
    
    Caution to readers: discussion of the significance of the mystery object to
    the Columbia accident investigation is off-topic on SeeSat-L, but on-topic for
    Columbia-L. To subscribe to Columbia-L, send a message with the word subscribe
    as the subject to Columbia-L-request@satobs.org
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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