USA 116 has been recovered

From: Ted Molczan (seesat@rogers.com)
Date: Wed Apr 19 2006 - 08:57:53 EDT

  • Next message: Alberto Rango: "4641 18 Apr 2006"

    Russell Eberst has recovered USA 116 (95066A / 23728) after 224 days. Nice work!
    
    http://satobs.org/seesat/Apr-2006/0144.html
    
    Here are Russell's obs, extracted from his report above:
    
    SATOBS
    
    2420 0604 0.211 1204
    18
    9506601 013937.89 034457+670047 2.0 2.0 0 S
    9506601 014001.88 040036+590243 2.3 2.3 0 S
    999
    
    I offer this solution, which has WRMS residuals = 0.039 deg:
    
    1 23728U 95066A   06108.05823466  .00001071  00000-0  54410-4 0    07
    2 23728  97.8950 241.3734 0282919  49.5738 312.9790 14.88278489    03
    
    I began with Mike McCants' latest elset:
    
    1 23728U 95066A   05249.06868391  .00001700  00000-0  86728-4 0    05
    2 23728  97.8648  18.4474 0285000  66.4251 293.5748 14.87800711    08
    
    For the present rate of decay, I used the value that caused Mike's elset to
    closely predict Russell's obs, found by trial and error. The present inclination
    is consistent with an apparent increase in RAAN of about 0.4 deg relative to my
    drag-adjusted version of Mike's elset, revealed by a preliminary orbital
    analysis, correcting only RAAN and mean anomaly. 
    
    Basically, I manually adjusted the drag-adjusted version of Mike's elset, until
    I found that a mean value of 97.88 deg closely predicted the new RAAN. Then I
    propagated to the present, and added double the difference (97.8648 + 2 * (97.88
    - 97.9864) to estimate the present inclination. I also set the new arg perigee
    to agree with the inclination and drag-adjusted version of Mike's elset.
    Finally, I ran a correction on only RAAN and mean anomaly.
    
    Mean motion and decay remain a bit uncertain, but predictions should be fairly
    accurate.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
    
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