First, predictions posted are usually more accurate, around 15% of remaining lifetime. This would be around +-8 hrs Second, although the predicted decay may be close to you, a revised decay time would probably end near the same part of the orbit, but the Earth, and your location, would be at a different position, and the decay might be 15000 km from you. Third, it depends on your location - I used predicted TLEs from www.calsky.com and found that using the last computed TLE made the last pass only 12 min earlier than using the TLE from noon today. So, you need to run a prediction - for night,day or shadow, depending on the decay time, and watch ALL possible passes. 2013/4/5 Sankaranarayanan K V <kvsankar@gmail.com>: > Thank you, Kevin. The predicted re-entry time has a range of plus/minus 14 > hours for the prediction epoch 04 APR 2013 @ 07:51:16.125 UTC. Will this > converge towards the reentry? How long should I be watching around the > reentry time? > > The site says: 06 APR 2013 @ 16:59 UTC ± 14 hours > > - Sankar > > > On Fri, Apr 5, 2013 at 5:57 PM, Kevin Fetter <kfetter@yahoo.com> wrote: > >> I expect a nice light show, it will be bright, ie naked eye range. >> >> Good luck, and enjoy the show, if you get to see it. >> >> >> --- On Fri, 4/5/13, Sankaranarayanan K V <kvsankar@gmail.com> wrote: >> >> > What can one >> > expect to see? >> > How bright would this re-entry be? >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Seesat-l mailing list >> http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l >> > -------------- next part -------------- > An HTML attachment was scrubbed... > URL: http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/private/seesat-l/attachments/20130405/45ba2686/attachment.html > _______________________________________________ > Seesat-l mailing list > http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l -- ---------------------------------------- Björn Gimle, COSPAR 5919 59.2576 N, 18.6172 E, 23 m Phone: +46 (0)8 571 43 312 Mobile: +46 (0) 704 385 486 _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-l
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