RE: OFEQ 10 Positions

From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Sat, 12 Apr 2014 11:44:27 -0400
Brad Young made the following observations of an Ofeq 10 candidate:

> 70002 14 999A   8336 F 20140412021354430 17 25 1334793+551697 48 S
> 70002 14 999A   8336 F 20140412021402340 17 25 1307069+620478 18 S
> 70002 14 999A   8336 F 20140412021441860 17 25 0821833+761809 48 S

It seems a good possibility. The third point seems inconsistent with the first two, so I set it aside (for now).

Brad was fortunate to spot it, given that the elset he used was intended only to illustrate the approximate orbit, and
was based on launch 9 min., later than the now generally accepted time of 19:06 UTC on 2014 Apr 9. Brad's object was at
least 12 min. later than I expected, based on a more accurate estimate of the initial elements. A possible explanation
is that the perigee was raised not long after launch. Here is a guess based on that idea, fit to Brad's first two
points:

Ofeq 10                                                  375 X 612 km
1 70000U          14102.09307870  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    02
2 70000 141.0000 218.8591 0172000  64.0412  16.6289 15.25000000    01
Arc 20140412.09-0412.09 WRMS resid 0.643 totl 0.055 xtrk

Expect prediction time error of several minutes per 24 h from epoch.

I expect to be unavailable to perform any further analysis until late tonight at the earliest.

Happy hunting!
Ted Molczan



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Received on Sat Apr 12 2014 - 10:50:42 UTC

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