SatEvo decay list #12
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sat, 24 Aug 1996 01:12:25 +0100
SatEvo decay list #12 (issued 1996 August 24)
Here are my latest SatEvo decay predictions. The "Actual?"
decay times are estimated from the final available elements.
A apparent fall in atmospheric density at the ~450 km perigee
height of many of the Pegasus debriz objects has given several
them a new lease of life.
<PRE>
# Designation Name ------- Decay -------
Predicted Actual?
12070 80- 92 D Molniya 1-48 SL-6 r2 (Note 1) August 7.93
24281 96- 47 B Soyuz r August 21.55
23797 96- 10 D Raduga 33 SL-12 r2 August 21.60
24226 94- 29 KZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb (Note 2) August 21?
23962 94- 29 K STEP-2 Pegasus deb August 25.4
24275 96- 45 C Molniya platform? September 4
24251 94- 29 MA STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 6
23927 86- 17 LP GFZ 1 deb September 12
24037 94- 29 CJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 13
24022 94- 29 BT STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 14
23959 94- 29 G STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 17
23956 94- 29 D STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 20
23926 86- 17 LN GFZ 1 deb September 30
24219 94- 29 KS STEP-2 Pegasus deb September 30
24274 96- 45 B Molniya SL-6 r? October 1
4641 70- 25 Z Thorad Agena D deb October 5
24028 94- 29 BZ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 7
23988 94- 29 AJ STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 12
24160 94- 29 HK STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 23
23888 86- 17 KG GFZ 1 deb October 24
24056 94- 29 DD STEP-2 Pegasus deb October 24
16982 86- 73 B NOAA 10 deb October 29
23856 86- 17 KF GFZ 1 deb October 29
7047 73- 86 AP Delta 1 deb November 2
23869 96- 31 B MSTI-3 Pegasus r November 2
23689 86- 17 JL GFZ 1 deb November 5
13682 81- 28 BE Cosmos 1260 deb November 8
24063 94- 29 DL STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 16
12347 80- 30 V Cosmos 1174 deb November 17
23946 96- 38 B USA 125 Titan IV r November 17 (Note 7)
24200 94- 29 KB STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 22
24011 94- 29 BG STEP-2 Pegasus deb November 23
</PRE>
Notes:
1. #12070: One I missed at the time.
2. #24226: No elsets published since August 12 - presumed lost.
3. The following objects were predicted to decay in my previous list
but may survive until December or later: #21794, #24018, #24031,
#24047, #24048, #24060 and #24220. Of these, the inclusion of #24220
was my mistake - it may survive until 1998.
4. Recent NASA 60d decay forecasts have included the COBE debriz
"#22972 = 89- 89 BX" with decay predicted for October 7 or 8.
The latest elements I can obtain from OIG for #22972 date from
1995 March and lead me to suggest that it decayed around six months
later. Also, object #22972 is 89- 89 AX not BX.
^
5. #8074 = 66- 56 H (Pageos 1 deb H) may decay during the next month
or two. Solar radiation pressure has halved its perigee height
to 384 km during the past 97 days and it is now falling at about 6 km
per week. Alas, SatEvo does not model SRP or other lunisolar
perturbations so I can't provide a realistic forecast at present.
6. #23800 = 96- 5 E (Gorizont 31 SL-12 deb) may also decay during
the period. Its perigee is at 131 km, having fallen about 15 km during
the past 24 days. Elsets show large variations (some certainly
fictional) in both mean motion and ndot.
7. #23946 prediction based on the following elements by Pierre Nierinck
via Russell Eberst, converted to tle format by me:
USA 125 Titan IV r 291 x 264
1 23946U 96038B 96235.13668180 .00071075 00000-0 00000-0 0 12
2 23946 54.9772 302.0185 0019822 112.6261 247.5836 15.98932046 13
Bjorn Gimle maintains a WWW resource of decay information at
http://www.algonet.se/~b_gimle/
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224