The Mean Motion of the SL-6 rocket has increased almost linearly for the last two days, which is reflected in the almost constant ndot2, which appear essentially correct. This makes SatEvo and my simple extrapolation continuously move the predicted decay to a later time. ndot2 MM issue extrapol. 24801,97,217.98620316, .02031145, 16.28555243, 1333, 178," 97022B ",97220.8 24801,97,217.61761767, .02016559, 16.26907063, 1327, 176," 97022B ",97220.5 24801,97,217.61761521, .02026703, 16.26892677, 1327, 177," 97022B ",97220.5 24801,97,217.55615110, .01990080, 16.26640023, 1326, 175," 97022B ",97220.5 24801,97,217.37168214, .01961991, 16.25908511, 1323, 174," 97022B ",97220.4 24801,97,216.57140414, .01944632, 16.22916204, 1310, 171," 97022B ",97219.8 24801,97,216.50978241, .01939559, 16.22673128, 1309, 170," 97022B ",97219.7 24801,97,216.26321707, .01931602, 16.21728609, 1305, 169," 97022B ",97219.5 24801,97,216.13988109,+.01736076, 16.21204514, 1303, 172," 97022B ",97219.8 24801,97,216.07820689, .01629196, 16.20976532, 1302, 167," 97022B ",97220.0 24801,97,216.07819682, .01649709, 16.20980225, 1302, 168," 97022B ",97220 For SatEvo and day 217, the estimate moves from Aug 07.79 to 08.23 and estimated ndot2 = .01962 .. .02125 Fitting a curve to these MM (and ndot2) values, I get ndot2 = .01805 .. .02121 for day 216-217, and SatEvo predicts Aug.07.83 to 07.97. Using only the 97217= Aug.05 values, the most recent ndot2 becomes .02405 and SatEvo Aug 07.91 to 07.92 ( 22:00 UT ) This prediction is my favourite, because I will have an excellent 57 degree pass in SE on the orbit before, and a five-minute low pass in the N at 21:28 UT, and my chance of witnessing a decay increases considerably from the usual 1% ;-)> -- ------------------------------------------------------------ -- bjorn@tt-tech.se (office) +46-8-59095783 -- -- b_gimle@algonet.se (home) +46-8-7428086 -- -- 59.22371 N, 18.22857 E AND member of : -- -- http://www.algonet.se/~b_gimle SeeSat-L -- ------------------------------------------------------------