Decaying SL-6

Bjoern Gimle (bjorn@tt-tech.se)
Wed, 06 Aug 1997 11:55:00 +0200

The Mean Motion of the SL-6 rocket has increased almost linearly for the
last two days, which is reflected in the almost constant ndot2, which
appear essentially correct. This makes SatEvo and my simple
extrapolation
continuously move the predicted decay to a later time.

                        ndot2     MM                issue            
extrapol.
24801,97,217.98620316, .02031145, 16.28555243, 1333,  178," 97022B 
",97220.8
24801,97,217.61761767, .02016559, 16.26907063, 1327,  176," 97022B 
",97220.5
24801,97,217.61761521, .02026703, 16.26892677, 1327,  177," 97022B 
",97220.5
24801,97,217.55615110, .01990080, 16.26640023, 1326,  175," 97022B 
",97220.5
24801,97,217.37168214, .01961991, 16.25908511, 1323,  174," 97022B 
",97220.4
24801,97,216.57140414, .01944632, 16.22916204, 1310,  171," 97022B 
",97219.8
24801,97,216.50978241, .01939559, 16.22673128, 1309,  170," 97022B 
",97219.7
24801,97,216.26321707, .01931602, 16.21728609, 1305,  169," 97022B 
",97219.5
24801,97,216.13988109,+.01736076, 16.21204514, 1303,  172," 97022B 
",97219.8
24801,97,216.07820689, .01629196, 16.20976532, 1302,  167," 97022B 
",97220.0
24801,97,216.07819682, .01649709, 16.20980225, 1302,  168," 97022B 
",97220

For SatEvo and day 217, the estimate moves from Aug 07.79 to 08.23
and estimated ndot2 = .01962 .. .02125

Fitting a curve to these MM (and ndot2) values, I get ndot2 = .01805 ..
.02121
for day 216-217, and SatEvo predicts Aug.07.83 to 07.97.

Using only the 97217= Aug.05 values, the most recent ndot2 becomes
.02405
and SatEvo Aug 07.91 to 07.92  ( 22:00 UT )

This prediction is my favourite, because I will have an excellent 57
degree pass
in SE on the orbit before, and a five-minute low pass in the N at 21:28
UT, and
my chance of witnessing a decay increases considerably from the usual 1%

;-)>

-- 

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