Decay Forecast August 14

From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Mon Aug 14 2000 - 05:47:36 PDT

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    Report time 12:10 UTC
    
    1996-056C (#24321) NAVSTAR 39 RB ( PAM-D)
    Not only SpaceCom has these days problems with decay predictions caused by 
    the impact of the rapid changing solar activity on the atmosphere. Their last 
    prediction - prepared August 13, 02:09 UTC - shows the decay on 
                          14 August, 22:34 UTC +/- 01 day (15.4°S, 187.5°E)
    This was already yesterday definitely too early and also the last ELSETs
    00227.117... and 00227.250 delivers with MPM + REENTRY a decay on
                          15 August, 11:19 UTC +/- 90 minutes (34.85°N, 109.35°E)
    Let us now wait for the overdue TIP message  1 DAYS BFEORE DECAY.
    
    In about 24 hours I will show a reliable prediction for the other decayer - 
    1983-025D (#13967) MOLNIYA RB 2. SpaceCom's fresh forecast - prepared  August 14,
    07:23 UTC - delivers the decay on 
                         16 August, 06:41 UTC +/- 01 day (03.3°N 160.4°E)
    This type of rocket body shows often a "castrophic" decay. I will wait with my
    estimate until tomorrow....
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany 
    
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