Re: Decay watch: 2002 August 20

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Aug 20 2002 - 16:16:26 EDT

  • Next message: Leo Barhorst: "UNID aug 17"

    The latest elset for the about-to-decay Meteor sat...
    
    Meteor 1-2       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v   12       146 x 129 km
    1 04119U 69084A   02232.77240833  .20501331 -99330-6  20044-3 0  5710
    2 04119  81.1065 290.3020 0012827 271.7290  88.3156 16.50633865721297
    
    ...has this 0.7 sec early against the prediction I posted a couple of 
    hours ago:
    
    >SatEvo prediction:
    >Meteor 1-2       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v   12       143 x 132 km
    >1 04119U 69084A   02232.77238453  .26684051  72915+0  27212-3 0 95694
    >2 04119  81.1133 290.3007 0008562 264.4045  95.4979 16.50738278721292
    >Meteor 1-2       5.0  1.5  0.0  5.8 v   12       129 x 122 km
    >1 04119U 69084A   02232.83293679  .58197577  49024+1  31817-3 0 95691
    >2 04119  81.1118 290.2140 0006092 264.1573  95.7732 16.55297933721306
    
    So little change to my decay estimate (except that the uncertainty is 
    now less than one orbit)...
    >
    >Note: The latest elset shows this running only 4.4 sec early against
    >the prediction I posted yesterday. I now predict the decay for a
    >northbound pass over Mali, northern Africa at the end of the final
    >SatEvo-predicted rev above. If it stays in orbit a little longer there 
    >is a pass a cross Europe from near Marseille, France, at 21:37 UTC to 
    >Bremen, Germany, at 21:39 and just E of Oslo, Norway, at 21:41. 
    >SpaceCom now has a very similar decay estimate. The uncertainty is 
    >still more than one orbit either way.
    
    The final pre-decay SpaceCom estimate is for decay at 21:26 UTC at 17.1 
    deg South, 2.2 deg W.
    
    Worth watching for from Europe.
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
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