Decay watch: 2003 August 31

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Aug 31 2003 - 14:56:28 EDT

  • Next message: Harro Zimmer: "Progress RB Decay"

    Apologies for the typo in my previous message that predicted the
    Progress rocket's decay on "Apr 31" rather than "Aug 31". As Harro has
    posted, it appears that this re-entry was seen from Turkey this morning.
    I have updated my Decay Watch page with the final notice for this (SCC's
    update  and its later elsets were very slow to appear on OIG's site) and
    with the first notice for #25641, the ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda (or
    SPELDA). In summary:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25641 = 99-  9 D = ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Aug 31 01:48     Sep  4 00:08 +-2d         2.3 N   121.6 W
    SatEvo     Aug 31 18:40     Sep  4 09:16 +-1.2
    
    Latest elset:
    ArabSat 3A Ariane Spelda                         822 x 163 km
    1 25641U 99009D   03243.61856671  .06907221 -28283-4  38038-2 0  8603
    2 25641   6.6459 229.6636 0479679 296.5095  58.6795 15.24372847 83354
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27874 = 03- 39 B = Progress M-48 Soyuz rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Aug 31 02:43     Aug 31 02:14 +-7m        37.0 N    26.0 E
    SatEvo     Aug 31 18:20     Aug 31 02:06 +-15m       10.6 N     0.6 E
    
    Final elset:
    Progress M-48 Soyuz r                            146 x 134 km
    1 27874U 03039B   03243.02502746  .14876859  12754-4  16067-3 0   143
    2 27874  51.6545   2.8876 0009533  59.9620 300.6975 16.49837691   338
    
    Note: My estimate is for this to have decayed following the end of
    the rev given by the above orbit, possibly northbound close to Nigeria.
    However, Harro Zimmer has posted a report on SeeSat-L that suggests
    that the re-entry was observed by Firat Barlas from Uludag-Bursa,
    Turkey, at 02:14 UTC.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
    
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