Somehow this message did not arrive in my mailbox till now. It appears that the object decayed over the Indian Ocean as predicted. Somewhat of a relief with such a heavy object :-) I would like to express my appreciation of the excellent work and valuable assistance by Harro and by Ted Molczan, Alan Pickup and also Arnold Barmetter (Calsky) which made it as easy as practicable to follow this object with reliable up to date predictions in difficult circumstances when decay in this region was a possibility. Unfortunately a severe storm system here prevented any attempt to observe final orbits - or even to venture outside at all (added to the fact that most occurred during early morning with no solar illumination even if we had not been clouded out.) With such a high RCS value it would have likely been a spectacular display had the decay been visible. If it had occurred early morning and been visible here the chances are there would have been few knowledgeable observers (and it would possibly have caused UFO reports and the like.) Thus any identified observations would have been likely to be the result of the work done by those on this list - that is one of the reasons we need TLEs! Robert Holdsworth Wainuiomata New Zealand 41.261S 147.948E UTC plus 12 still clouded out but better weather coming ----- Original Message ----- From: "Harro Zimmer" <Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de> To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org> Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2004 3:49 AM Subject: Decay Forecast Cosmos 1030 - Update > Report time 15:30 UTC > > 1978-083A (#11015) Cosmos 1030 > > SCC'S 06 HOURS BEFORE DECAY messge - prepared August 17, 12:19 UTC - predicts > the decay on: > 17 August, 18:23 UTC +/- 04 hours (57.5°S, 125.3°E) descending over the Indian > Ocean. > > MPM + REENTRY delivers with the ELSETs 04230.321... - 04230.458... (SFX 131, ap 008) > the decay on: > 17 August 18;15 UTC +/- 21 minutes (32.84°S,90.68°E) also southbound over > the Indian Ocean. > > SCC'S forecast is very near my preceding prediction issued 09:30 UTC. The decay > area is faraway from any landmass at the southern hemisphere. > > Harro > > Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de > Berlin, Germany > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- > Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: > http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html > > ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Subscribe/Unsubscribe info, Frequently Asked Questions, SeeSat-L archive: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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