Re: Decay Forecast Cosmos 1030 - Update

From: Robert Holdsworth (robbonz1@xtra.co.nz)
Date: Wed Aug 18 2004 - 14:44:23 EDT

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    Somehow this message did not arrive in my mailbox till now.
    
    It appears that the object decayed over the Indian Ocean as predicted.
    Somewhat of a relief with such a heavy object :-)
    
    I would like to express my appreciation of the excellent work and valuable
    assistance by Harro and by Ted Molczan, Alan Pickup and also Arnold
    Barmetter (Calsky) which made it as easy as practicable to follow this
    object with reliable up to date predictions in difficult circumstances when
    decay in this region was a possibility.
    
    Unfortunately a severe storm system here prevented any attempt to observe
    final orbits - or even to venture outside at all (added to the fact that
    most occurred during early morning with no solar illumination even if we had
    not been clouded out.)
    
    With such a high RCS value it would have likely been a spectacular display
    had the decay been visible.   If it had occurred early morning and been
    visible here the chances are there would have been few knowledgeable
    observers (and it would possibly have caused UFO reports and the like.)
    Thus  any identified observations would have been likely to be the result of
    the work done by those on this list  -  that is one of the reasons we need
    TLEs!
    
    Robert Holdsworth
    Wainuiomata
    New Zealand
    41.261S
    147.948E
    UTC plus 12
    still clouded out but better weather coming
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    From: "Harro Zimmer" <Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de>
    To: <SeeSat-L@satobs.org>
    Sent: Wednesday, August 18, 2004 3:49 AM
    Subject: Decay Forecast Cosmos 1030 - Update
    
    
    > Report time 15:30 UTC
    >
    > 1978-083A (#11015) Cosmos 1030
    >
    > SCC'S 06 HOURS BEFORE DECAY messge - prepared August 17, 12:19 UTC -
    predicts
    > the decay on:
    > 17 August, 18:23 UTC +/- 04 hours (57.5S, 125.3E) descending over the
    Indian
    > Ocean.
    >
    > MPM + REENTRY delivers with the ELSETs 04230.321... - 04230.458... (SFX
    131, ap 008)
    > the decay on:
    > 17 August 18;15 UTC +/- 21 minutes (32.84S,90.68E) also southbound over
    > the Indian Ocean.
    >
    > SCC'S forecast is very near my preceding prediction issued 09:30 UTC. The
    decay
    > area is faraway from any landmass at the southern hemisphere.
    >
    > Harro
    >
    > Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    > Berlin, Germany
    >
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