Re: USA 186 search elements

From: Brad Young via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 02:39:23 +0000 (UTC)
Fooled by 39477 passing at range of 264 miles, but still kept watch until -5/+5 minutes after 79304/79302 would've passed; unless it sneaked by while timing the interloper, from -90 to -30s. Even then, I checked the north sky while it would still have been visible. Conditions = E. 

Brad Young 
Bright:20 x 80 Celestron binoculars parallelogram tripod 
Dim:22" f/4.2 UC Obsession _at_ 100x 
Numbers above and methods explained at: http://www.satobs.org/seesat/Jan-2015/0074.html COSPAR 8336 =TULSA1 +36.139208,-95.983429 660ft, 201m 
COSPAR 8335 =TULSA2 +35.8311  -96.1411 1083ft, 330m


>________________________________
> From: Ted Molczan via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
>To: seesat-l_at_satobs.org 
>Sent: Sunday, August 21, 2016 8:32 PM
>Subject: USA 186 search elements
> 
>
>I offer the following search elements, based on my guess that a reboost occurred on 2016 Aug 11. The 79301 and 79302
>TLEs are for the earliest likely perigee of manoeuvre; the others for the latest. Two mean motions are offered for both
>manoeuvre times; 15.69 rev/d has occurred more often than 15.65 rev/d, but the sample is small.
>
>1 79301U 79301A   16224.38300926  .00021000  00000-0  90097-4 0    01
>2 79301  96.8909 261.8860 0149500 213.0464 357.8230 15.69000000    02
>1 79302U 79302A   16224.38300927  .00021000  00000-0  90097-4 0    04
>2 79302  96.8909 261.8860 0166300 213.0464 357.8230 15.65000000    06
>
>1 79303U 79303A   16224.76454861  .00021000  00000-0  90097-4 0    05
>2 79303  96.8909 262.2634 0149500 211.5867 357.6044 15.69000000    09
>1 79304U 79304A   16224.76454862  .00021000  00000-0  90097-4 0    08
>2 79304  96.8909 262.2634 0166300 211.5867 357.6044 15.65000000    03
>
>The object could pass significantly earlier or later than predicted. A wide field of view is recommended.
>
>Ted Molczan
>
>
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Received on Sun Aug 21 2016 - 21:40:13 UTC

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