Cosmos 398 decay prediction
Mike McCants (mike@comshare.com)
Sat, 9 Dec 1995 01:36:08 -0600
I think there is a chance that the decay of Cosmos 398 may be visible
in Europe. My predicted decay time is 3h 30m UT on Dec. 11. This is
early Monday morning. This could be in error by one revolution,
but I hope that the error will be less. I do not expect to obtain any
new elements.
The following ground tracks should be close to correct.
The height will be 50 to 70 miles when the reentry takes place.
*** 95 Dec 10/11 Sun evening/Mon morning ***
NCAT 4966 Cosmos 398
Hr Mn Lat Long (East)
1 41 39.5 11.2
1 42 41.9 15.4
1 43 44.0 19.9
1 44 46.0 24.8
1 45 47.7 30.0
1 46 49.1 35.6
...
3 11 45.4 1.0
3 12 47.2 6.1
3 13 48.7 11.5
3 14 49.9 17.3
3 15 50.8 23.4
3 16 51.4 29.6
3 17 51.6 35.9
...
4 42 50.6 -0.4
4 43 51.3 5.8
4 44 51.5 12.1
4 45 51.4 18.5
4 46 51.0 24.8
4 47 50.2 30.8
I believe the best chance is the 3:11 ground track.
The following elements can be used with Quicksat (provided that
the "Ignore shadow test" flag is set to T (true).
Cosmos 398
1 04966U 71016A 95345.12170000 .09770000 20000-2 14698-3 0 0
2 04966 51.3643 74.5680 0010000 31.0900 329.1460 16.48312700 0
The actual time should be within 2 minutes of the prediction.
The following is a nominal prediction for Rainer Kracht:
For lat 53.770, long 9.663 East
*** 95 Dec 11 Mon *** Times are UT ***
4966 Cosmos 398
H M S Al Az Dir Mag Dys F Hgt Rng EW Phs R A Dec
3 12 25 12 187 279 0.9 0 1 107 426 1.6 69 836 -24.3
3 12 36 13 180 278 0.7 0 1 107 403 1.7 74 9 7 -23.6
3 12 48 13 172 275 0.6 0 1 107 387 1.7 79 939 -22.5
3 13 0 14 164 272 0.6 0 1 107 378 1.7 86 1013 -20.9
3 13 11 14 156C 269 0.6 0 1 107 377 1.7 92 1047 -19.1
3 13 23 14 147 266 0.8 0 1 107 383 1.5 99 1120 -16.9
3 13 34 13 139 264 1.0 0 1 107 396 1.4 105 1151 -14.7
3 13 46 12 132 261 1.3 0 1 107 416 1.2 111 1220 -12.5
3 13 57 11 126 259 1.7 0 1 107 441 1.0 116 1245 -10.4
Mike McCants
mike@comshare.com