Re: Unid Group
Ed Cannon (ecannon@mail.utexas.edu)
Sat, 21 Dec 1996 03:55:57 -0600
Alphonse Pouplier (alphonse.pouplier@skynet.be) wrote:
>> A guy <...> saw a group of 5 to 8 (!) satellites
>> crossing the sky of Paris on december 14 1996 between
>> 21:45 and 22:00 UTC
>> Coordinates of PARIS: 48d52m NORTH 2d20m EAST
>> <...> magnitude of each one was 2 to 3.
>> And they passed near the zenith.
<...>
and Bruno Tilgner (100533.2016@compuserve.com) replied (in part)
> I have sent this posting by fax to PIERRE NEIRINCK, <...>. His comments
> are the following:
>
> 1. it is not clear whether a passage of 5 to 8 satellites occurred at some
> time between 21:45 and 22:00 (that would be my understanding) or whether the
> satellites appeared individually during this time span.
<...>
> 3. For how long did he see the satellites? This would permit to determine
> their height and angular speed.
>
> 4. No satellites of mag 2 or 3 were sunlit over Paris at that time.
> So they must have been self-luminous, presumably decaying satellites. But
> decays into 5 or more pieces of mag 2 seem unlikely.
I've attempted Universal Time Quicksat predictions for Paris for Dec. 14
(extract below), and I'd like to emphasize Neyrinck's point 4 by mentioning
that Quicksat produced no predictions for any bright satellites for the
time period. I believe that 22:00 UTC is 10:00 or 11:00 p.m. in Paris, many
hours after the winter Sun has set. (In any case, my Quicksat predictions
are UT.) So I wonder if there might be some confusion about the time of the
observations, as I believe that the person saw the objects. If the time is
correct, they must have been airplanes or UFOs or something else.
Note below the objects (down to mag. 4.5) that appeared between 17:45 and
18:00 UT at 60 degrees or higher above the horizon; they include Mir (and I
don't know if Progress M-33 was docked with it that day or not). At least
4 or 5 brighter than mag. 4.0 appeared during that time interval. Several
dimmer Mir debris objects (only one included below) also passed high over
Paris that evening around that time, but I inferred that his observations
were naked-eye and therefore that he would not have seen those.
48.867 -2.333 300. Paris, France 2000 4.5 60 F F F T T
*** 1996 Dec 14 Sat *** Times are UT *** 1658 632
H M S Tim Al Azi C Dir Mag Dys F Hgt Shd Rng EW Phs R A Dec
11332 Cosmos 1093 Rk 79 32B 3.8 2.6 7.8 4.0 3.5
17 45 14 .0 60 286 C 92 3.5 3 7 357 219 405 1.6 98 2028 48.2
15100 Meteor 2-11 Rk 84 72B 7.4 2.4 5.9 3.4 4.0
17 48 36 .0 81 100 C 273 4.4 3 8 595 371 602 1.2 63 027 46.2
17528 MOS 1-A Rk 87 18B 10.3 2.5 12 3.0 3.5
17 49 24 .0 66 75 C 272 3.7 3 4 541 265 584 1.2 48 159 49.1
23875 Mir Debris KC 86 17KC .37 6.0
17 50 29 .1 82 158 C 270 4.4 3 0 230 25 232 3.0 71 2350 41.3
24663 Progress M-33 96 66A 90 3.0
17 50 50 .0 73 156 C 270 1.6 4 8 241 33 252 2.8 70 0 7 32.9
16609 Mir Complex 86 17A 32.7 4.2 360 1.2 -1.0
17 51 1 .0 73 156 C 270 -2.4 2 8 241 32 251 2.8 70 0 7 33.0
5707 Cosmos 468 Rk 71 114B 7.4 2.4 13 3.4 4.0
17 52 53 .0 75 248 C 268 4.3 3 6 497 323 513 1.4 86 2223 41.3
7364 Meteor 1-18 Rk 74 52B 3.8 2.6 13 4.0 4.0
17 54 16 .0 61 72 C 88 4.3 3 5 571 242 643 1.1 42 240 49.0
17974 Cosmos 1844 Rk 87 41B 10.4 3.9 18 2.5 s 2.5
17 58 5 .0 85 241 C 268 2.8 3 5 535 315 537 1.4 75 2318 46.2
4784 Cosmos 381 Rk 70 102B 7.4 2.4 8.2 3.4 4.0
17 59 15 .0 65 61 C 88 4.4 3 2 612 277 664 1.1 46 221 54.7
22220 Cosmos 2219 Rk 92 76B 10.4 3.9 31 2.5 s 2.0
18 4 20 .0 85 300 C 92 2.2 3 7 532 283 534 1.4 73 2324 50.8
The last prediction produced (about 2.5 hours before 21:45) was:
22079 TOPEX Rk 92 52D 9.9 2.6 25 3.0 3.0
19 23 28 .0 70 237 C 267 4.3 3 9 818 195 861 .9 73 2345 35.6
Ed Cannon
ecannon@mail.utexas.edu
Austin, Texas, USA
30.33N x 97.75W