Decay watch: 2000 Dec 1

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Dec 01 2000 - 15:51:08 PST

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    As Harro Zimmer has mentioned, SpaceCom's final decay notice for #26627,
    the Sirius 3 Proton rocket, is identical (except for the time of issue)
    with that for the Proton 3rd stage casing (the "platform"). Indeed, as I
    say in my updated Decay Watch page...
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26627 = 00- 77 B = Sirius 3 Proton rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Dec  1 16:49     Dec  1 09:50 +-27m       16.0 S    13.4 E
    SatEvo     Dec  1 22:55     Dec  1 09:37 +-2h        19.8 N     1.5 W
    
    Final elsets:
    Sirius 3 Proton r                                152 x 127 km
    1 26627U 00077B   00336.25340585  .26278072  77560-5  24978-3 0    78
    2 26627  64.8420  43.5902 0018695 102.9841 256.5543 16.49920989    70
    Sirius 3 Proton r                                156 x 126 km
    1 26627U 00077B   00336.25357267  .08267693  81149-5  77512-4 0    82
    2 26627  64.8383  43.5732 0023225   2.8407 357.1208 16.49494075    78
    
    Note: I find it impossible to fit a satisfactory orbital evolution 
    through the released elsets for this, some of which may be confused 
    with #26628, the associated casing. What I have settled on is a very
    uncertain evolution that ends:
    Sirius 3 Proton r                                135 x 116 km
    1 26627U 00077B   00336.31399344  .36193360  10020+1  17172-3 0 90079
    2 26627  64.8408  43.3512 0014478 102.9570 257.2048 16.55424124    81
    Sirius 3 Proton r                                113 x 104 km
    1 26627U 00077B   00336.37429385 1.27213385  50000+2  29326-3 0 90072
    2 26627  64.8389  43.1117 0007339 102.9299 257.1521 16.61889627    90
    with decay while southbound over the Sahara of NW Africa. I note
    that the final decay notice for this is identical with that for the 
    casing - further evidence that the two were confused.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26628 = 00- 77 C = Sirius 3 Proton casing (aka "platform")
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Dec  1 14:04     Dec  1 09:50 +-27m       16.0 S    13.4 E
    SatEvo     Dec  1 23:20     Dec  1 09:48 +-20m       20.0 S    15.1 E
    
    Final elset:
    Sirius 3 Proton casing                           128 x 113 km
    1 26628U 00077C   00336.37452757  .36046293  79805-5  13838-3 0    95
    2 26628  64.8558  43.0736 0011398 277.1736  82.8568 16.57342152    92
    
    Note: Although this may have been confused with the rocket, the elsets
    released for this are much more self-consistent. Like SpaceCom, I
    suspect that this decayed a little beyond the southbound equator
    crossing on the orbit described by the final elset. I put decay over
    Namibia but note that it might have passed over Casablanca, Morocco, at
    09:34 UTC, Lagos, Nigeria, at 09:41 and between Cape Town and Port
    Elizabeth, S Africa, at 09:52.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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