SatEvo decay list #109

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Dec 10 2000 - 09:46:12 PST

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    SatEvo decay list #109 (issued 2000 December 10)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2001 February 1, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,400 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     26617   00- 74 A   Quickbird 1                    November 21.01 Note 3
     24117   94- 29 FQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             November 22.4
     17726   71- 15 DD  Cosmos 397 deb                 November 22.8?
     23824   96- 10 E   Raduga 33 aux motor            November 22.9
     26618   75- 17 C   OPS 2439 deb                   November 23.69
      4625   70- 91 E   Cosmos 375 deb                 November 24.2
     26455   99- 57 LA  CBERS LM4 deb                  November 27.4
     25470   98- 51 D   Iridium 79                     November 29.39
     22373   92- 93 BN  C 2227 Zenit deb               November 29.9
     26627   00- 77 B   Sirius 3 Proton r              December  1.40
     26628   00- 77 C   Sirius 3 Proton casing         December  1.41
     26171   99- 57 BH  CBERS LM4 deb                  December  1.7
     24164   94- 29 HP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December  2.3
     26190   99- 57 CC  CBERS LM4 deb                  December  2.8
     21334   75- 52 BC  Nimbus 6 Delta 1 deb           December  4.4  Note 1
      8577   70- 89 AQ  Cosmos 374 deb                 December  6.3
     10212   77- 65 AR  GMS 1 Delta deb                December  6.9  Note 1
     26164   99- 57 BA  CBERS LM4 deb                  December  9.9  Note 1
     22380   92- 93 BV  C 2227 Zenit deb      December 10.0
     24743   97-  9 B   Intelsat 801 Ariane r December 12
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r          December 12
     26417   99- 57 JN  CBERS LM4 deb         December 12
     25422   98- 46 K   Orbcomm 13 Peg r2     December 14
     16480   79- 17 FE  Solwind deb           December 15
     17628   81- 53 LA  Cosmos 1275 deb       December 16
     22067   92- 47 H   C 2204 Proton r2      December 16
     26433   99- 57 KE  CBERS LM4 deb         December 16
     19830   78-100 AN  C 1045 SL-14 deb      December 17
     18719   87-109 E   Ekran 17 aux motor    December 19
      4618   70- 89 E   Cosmos 374 deb        December 20
     24221   94- 29 KU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 20
     15538   71- 15 CV  Cosmos 397 deb        December 23
     22465   92- 93 FE  C 2227 Zenit deb      December 23
     24140   94- 29 GP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 24
     24429   94- 29 SH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 24
     26153   99- 57 AP  CBERS LM4 deb         December 24
     24089   94- 29 EL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 26
     24154   94- 29 HD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 26
     24181   94- 29 JG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 26
     26051   93-  9 D   OXP 1 Pegasus deb     December 26? Note 2
      4392   70- 34 B   Mao 1 CZ-1 r          December 28
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85            December 28
     26252   99- 57 EN  CBERS LM4 deb         December 28
      4584   70- 85 B   Meteor 1-6 r          December 29
     24458   94- 29 TF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 30
     25576   65-109 G   Transit 10 deb        December 30
                                                  2001
     25451   87- 68 BY  Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb  January  1
     24745   97- 10 B   Zeya r                 January  3
      4647   70- 25 AF  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb      January  4
     25224   87- 68 BB  Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb  January  5
     26318   99- 57 HB  CBERS LM4 deb          January  5
     14915   78- 26 GQ  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb  January  6
     26458   99- 57 LD  CBERS LM4 deb          January  6
     16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689            January  7
     23854   96- 25 B   Cosmos 2332 r          January  7
     16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r          January  8
     22659   93- 32 C   GPS 2-20 r2            January  9
     12196   78- 26 AM  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb  January 10
     14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2        January 10
     26421   99- 57 JS  CBERS LM4 deb          January 10
     24176   94- 29 JB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 12
     26223   99- 57 DM  CBERS LM4 deb          January 12
     26325   99- 57 HJ  CBERS LM4 deb          January 12
     15758   68- 91 CZ  Cosmos 249 deb         January 13
      3687   68- 97 AE  Cosmos 252 deb         January 14
     20456   77- 65 GD  GMS 1 Dlt deb          January 14?
     26263   99- 57 EZ  CBERS LM4 deb          January 14
     23982   94- 29 AC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 15
     26097   00-  4 N   Picosat deb            January 16
     26303   86- 73 D   NOAA 10 deb            January 16
     22986   94-  8 F   Raduga 1-3 Proton deb  January 21
     22452   92- 93 ER  C 2227 Zenit deb       January 22
     22925   93- 72 E   Gorizont 29 aux mot    January 22
     24455   95- 58 H   C 2322 Zenit deb       January 22
     24361   94- 29 PN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 25
     25720   89-100 BR  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb   January 25
      8432   72- 58 FM  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb  January 26
     23419   94- 77 K   Cosmos 2297 deb        January 26
     26062   00-  4 B   OCS                    January 30
     16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26          February  3
     25313   98- 24 C   Nilesat Ariane 44P r  February  3
     26606   00- 71 B   Navstar 49 Delta 2 r  February  5
     20094   89- 48 F   Raduga 1-1 aux motor  February 13
     23019   94- 14 A   Koronas 1             February 15
     22521   93- 11 A   Astro D               February 19
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2       February 20
     15957   85- 70 E   Raduga 16 aux motor      March
     22233   92- 79 C   GPS 2-16 r2              March
     23029   94- 16 C   GPS 2-24 r2              March
     25013   97- 63 A   STEP M4                  March
      5143   71- 31 B   Meteor 1-8 r             April
     11458   79- 67 B   Cosmos 1116 r            April
     23133   94- 35 B   UHF F/O 3 r              April
     25107   97- 82 D   Iridium 48               April
     11252   79-  5 B   Meteor 1-29 r              May
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. No recent elsets.
    
    3. The re-entry of Quickbird 1 was observed over Montevideo, Uruguay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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