Decay watch: 2000 Dec 12

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Tue Dec 12 2000 - 14:48:08 PST

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    From my updated Decay watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #24743 = 97-  9 B = Intelsat 801 Ariane 44P rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 12 09:27     Dec 12 09:46 +-22m        6.3 N   116.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec 12 22:20     Dec 12 09:49 +-6h         1.2 S   140.6 W
    
    Final elset:
    Intelsat 801 Ariane 44P r                        300 x 114 km
    1 24743U 97009B   00347.30464120  .64289858 -34911-4  82054-3 0  7880
    2 24743   6.4115 258.4314 0141174 337.0198 314.8302 16.24732844 60407
    
    Note: The final elset shows it running only 2.6 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction. I now suspect this decayed near a southbound
    equator crossing over the Pacific on the following orbit:
    Intelsat 801 Ariane 44P r                        188 x 102 km
    1 24743U 97009B   00347.37710846 2.71604300  50000+2  12742-2 0 97887
    2 24743   6.4108 257.7793 0065299 338.3119  21.4128 16.47889306 60411
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25124 = 97- 85 B = Early Bird Start-1 r
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 12 21:04     Dec 12 17:22 +-27m       44.6 S    97.2 E
    SatEvo     Dec 12 22:35     Dec 12 17:26 +-60m        14.4 S    90.2 E
    
    Final elset:
    Early Bird r     3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  2.7       154 x 145 km
    1 25124U 97085B   00347.48654085  .09132401  25567-5  20254-3 0  8330
    2 25124  97.1732  71.2509 0006857 196.2854 163.7484 16.46310525167088
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 11 sec early against the 
    prediction I posted yesterday. I show it surviving for more than three
    more orbits before decaying on a northbound pass over the Indian Ocean
    on this SatEvo-predicted rev:
    rev:
    Early Bird r     3.0  0.0  0.0  6.0 d  2.7       127 x 122 km
    1 25124U 97085B   00347.66845226  .50600977  27997+1  27293-3 0 98336
    2 25124  97.1703  71.4607 0003850 195.5108 164.4774 16.55528465167119
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25422 = 98- 46 K = Orbcomm 17 Pegasus r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 12 10:12     Dec 14 10:07 +-1d        33.5 S   167.5 E
    SatEvo     Dec 12 22:25     Dec 14 07:45 +-16h
    
    Latest elset:
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 218 x 203 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00347.54389212  .02859587  87093-5  10648-2 0  7669
    2 25422  42.5474 188.0727 0011203  19.8364 340.2948 16.23316410131152
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 7 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Tue Dec 12 2000 - 15:07:30 PST