Decay watch: 2000 Dec 13

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Dec 13 2000 - 13:44:50 PST

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    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25422 = 98- 46 K = Orbcomm 17 Pegasus r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 13 09:38     Dec 14 09:52 +-15h        5.1 N   119.8 E
    SatEvo     Dec 13 21:30     Dec 14 09:06 +-4h         0.0      44.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 192 x 183 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00348.58730774  .05001863  89107-5  87352-3 0  7717
    2 25422  42.5360 181.1819 0006805  10.8083 349.3034 16.31757930131323
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 180 x 172 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00348.89290169  .08548785  44694-1  93533-3 0 97717
    2 25422  42.5350 179.1483 0005751  13.1746 346.8402 16.36199878131379
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 173 x 166 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00349.01489156  .10668232  75136-1  89601-3 0 97717
    2 25422  42.5344 178.3326 0005221  14.1238 345.8905 16.38521730131395
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 159 x 154 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00349.19748643  .18476520  28504+0  81439-3 0 97716
    2 25422  42.5331 177.1055 0004126  15.5517 344.4609 16.43546937131427
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 152 x 147 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00349.25820364  .25693240  62183+0  62153-3 0 97715
    2 25422  42.5324 176.6951 0003576  16.0293 343.9820 16.46174088131430
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 140 x 137 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00349.31880139  .46467008  25804+1  50881-3 0 97717
    2 25422  42.5315 176.2836 0002751  16.5081 343.5008 16.50266197131445
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 2 sec late against 
    yesterday's prediction. I estimate that this will decay near the
    northbound equator crossing at the end of the final SatEvo-predicted
    rev above. This puts it near the mouth of the Amazon on a track that
    would carry it just S of Naples, Italy, at 09:23. SpaceCom puts the
    decay over Malaysia near the following southbound equator crossing.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Dec 13 2000 - 13:46:24 PST