Decay watch: 2000 Dec 14

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Dec 14 2000 - 12:46:07 PST

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    Due to problems outside my control, I am unable at present to update the
    copies of dklist, select, iridiums, etc, tle files on my WWW page.
    Frequently updated copies of these files are still available via FTP
    from ftp://ftp.roe.ac.uk/pub/dap/sats/  Availability of my all-object
    satbase.zip file in unaffected - this is only on my WWW page.
    
    See my Decay Watch page for the latest update for.....
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25422 = 98- 46 K = Orbcomm 17 Pegasus r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 14 06:33     Dec 14 08:15 +-3h        30.0 N   111.4 E
    SatEvo     Dec 14 20:15     Dec 14 08:06 +-90m       38.6 N    91.6 E
    
    Final elset:
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 163 x 157 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00349.13663485  .14588080  90810-5  76731-3 0  7761
    2 25422  42.5425 177.5184 0004638 313.1335  46.7268 16.42309694131419
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 2.8 sec early against 
    yesterday's prediction. I show this decaying over China, just beyond 
    northern apex and not long before SpaceCom's final prediction -
    SpaceCom has still to publish its post-decay analysis. My prediction 
    for the beginning of the final rev is:
    Orbcm Pegasus r2                                 124 x 122 km
    1 25422U 98046K   00349.31855487 1.75816689  50000+2  74083-3 0 97763
    2 25422  42.5394 176.2850 0001757 314.5684  45.4173 16.56314575131444
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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