Decay watch: 2000 Dec 20

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Dec 20 2000 - 11:49:16 PST

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    From my updated Decay Watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #18719 = 87-109 E = Ekran 17 aux motor
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 20 17:21     Dec 20 18:10 +-32m       37.5 S   130.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec 20 19:25     Dec 20 19:53 +-3h        29.8 S   155.6 W
    
    Latest (final?) elset:
    Ekran 17 aux motor                               374 x 121 km
    1 18719U 87109E   00355.43437500  .28297883  11579-4  62935-3 0  9273
    2 18719  46.9171 266.8966 0190521 289.0332 240.7418 16.09797668175215
    
    Note: I suspect that this is about to decay a little beyond perigee 
    on the second of these SatEvo-predicted revs:
    Ekran 17 aux motor                               265 x 116 km
    1 18719U 87109E   00355.71360296  .55547711  78404+0  69731-3 0 99274
    2 18719  46.9108 265.2103 0113794 290.6787  68.1051 16.30761231175261
    Ekran 17 aux motor                               225 x 113 km
    1 18719U 87109E   00355.77477006  .80083876  25053+1  73447-3 0 99275
    2 18719  46.9080 264.8326 0086083 291.0474  68.0342 16.38815648175273
    Ekran 17 aux motor                               152 x 104 km
    1 18719U 87109E   00355.83558143 2.76695944  50000+2  10687-2 0 99273
    2 18719  46.9042 264.4513 0037204 291.4195  68.1840 16.54271816175286
    This puts in northbound over the S Pacific. SpaceCom's post-decay
    notice has yet to appear.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22067 = 92- 47 H = Cosmos 2204 Proton r2
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 19 09:26     Dec 19 09:06 +-2h        55.9 N    13.0 W
    SatEvo     Dec 20 19:40     Dec 19 07:14 +-100m       0.0      30.5 W
    
    Final elset:
    C 2204 Proton r2                                 490 x 260 km
    1 22067U 92047H   00353.98676696  .14571585  47975+0  11097+0 0  4895
    2 22067  64.4487 167.3976 0170707 181.6565 178.4893 15.64469462139409
    
    Note: I estimate that this decayed in the vicinity of the northbound 
    equator crossing over the Atlantic at the end of the following 
    SatEvo-predicted rev:
    C 2204 Proton r2                                 313 x 207 km
    1 22067U 92047H   00354.23969362 1.83131377  11480+2  16708+0 0 94894
    2 22067  64.4357 166.4846 0079807 181.5830 178.3915 16.05327608139443
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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