SatEvo decay list #110

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Dec 29 2000 - 11:52:47 PST

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    SatEvo decay list #110 (issued 2000 December 29)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2001 February 20, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,400 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
     22380   92- 93 BV  C 2227 Zenit deb               December  9.9
     24743   97-  9 B   Intelsat 801 Ariane r          December 12.41
     25124   97- 85 B   Early Bird r                   December 12.73
     26417   99- 57 JN  CBERS LM4 deb                  December 12.9
     25422   98- 46 K   Orbcomm 13 Peg r2              December 14.34
     16480   79- 17 FE  Solwind deb                    December 16.7
     17628   81- 53 LA  Cosmos 1275 deb                December 17.1
     26433   99- 57 KE  CBERS LM4 deb                  December 18.5
     22067   92- 47 H   C 2204 Proton r2               December 19.30
     19830   78-100 AN  C 1045 SL-14 deb               December 19.7
     24221   94- 29 KU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 20.3
     18719   87-109 E   Ekran 17 aux motor             December 20.89
      4618   70- 89 E   Cosmos 374 deb                 December 23.1
     24140   94- 29 GP  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 26.4
     15538   71- 15 CV  Cosmos 397 deb                 December 27.1
     26153   99- 57 AP  CBERS LM4 deb                  December 28.3  Note 1
     24429   94- 29 SH  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             December 28.6  Note 1
      4392   70- 34 B   Mao 1 CZ-1 r                   December 29.23
     24089   94- 29 EL  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 29
     24154   94- 29 HD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 29
     26051   93-  9 D   OXP 1 Pegasus deb     December 29? Note 2
     26252   99- 57 EN  CBERS LM4 deb         December 29
     25529   98- 66 C   Iridium 85            December 30.7
     24181   94- 29 JG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    December 31
                                                  2001
      4584   70- 85 B   Meteor 1-6 r           January  1
     24458   94- 29 TF  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January  1
     25553   64- 49 H   Cosmos 41 deb          January  1
     22465   92- 93 FE  C 2227 Zenit deb       January  4
     23854   96- 25 B   Cosmos 2332 r          January  4
     20456   77- 65 GD  GMS 1 Dlt deb          January  5? Note 2
     25224   87- 68 BB  Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb  January  5
     26458   99- 57 LD  CBERS LM4 deb          January  7
      4647   70- 25 AF  Nimbus 4 ThAg deb      January  8
     16243   85-105 D   Cosmos 1701 r          January  8
     26318   99- 57 HB  CBERS LM4 deb          January  8
     12196   78- 26 AM  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb  January  9
     14915   78- 26 GQ  Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb  January  9
     22925   93- 72 E   Gorizont 29 aux mot    January  9
     24745   97- 10 B   Zeya r                 January  9
     26421   99- 57 JS  CBERS LM4 deb          January  9
     14520   83-114 D   Molniya 1-59 r2        January 10
     22659   93- 32 C   GPS 2-20 r2            January 10
     16110   85- 90 A   Cosmos 1689            January 11
     26325   99- 57 HJ  CBERS LM4 deb          January 11
     25576   65-109 G   Transit 10 deb         January 12
     26223   99- 57 DM  CBERS LM4 deb          January 12
     24176   94- 29 JB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 18
     24455   95- 58 H   C 2322 Zenit deb       January 18
     25451   87- 68 BY  Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb  January 18
     15758   68- 91 CZ  Cosmos 249 deb         January 20
     22452   92- 93 ER  C 2227 Zenit deb       January 21
     24217   94- 29 KQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 23
     23982   94- 29 AC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 26
     24361   94- 29 PN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb     January 27
      3687   68- 97 AE  Cosmos 252 deb         January 30
     26303   86- 73 D   NOAA 10 deb            January 30
     25313   98- 24 C   Nilesat Ariane 44P r  February  3
     26097   00-  4 N   Picosat deb           February  3
     26606   00- 71 B   Navstar 49 Delta 2 r  February  4
      8432   72- 58 FM  Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb February  6
     25720   89-100 BR  C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb  February  8
     26537   83- 44 FR  Cosmos 1461 deb       February  9
     16112   85- 91 A   Molniya 3-26          February 10
     26328   99- 57 HM  CBERS LM4 deb         February 10
     25314   98- 24 D   Nilesat Ariane Spelda February 11
     26062   00-  4 B   OCS                   February 11
     16125   85- 91 D   Molniya 3-26 r2       February 12
     26263   99- 57 EZ  CBERS LM4 deb         February 12
     22986   94-  8 F   Raduga 1-3 Proton deb February 13
     24385   94- 29 QN  STEP-2 Pegasus deb    February 14
      3560   68- 97 N   Cosmos 252 deb        February 17
     20094   89- 48 F   Raduga 1-1 aux motor  February 17
     25076   96- 49 H   Fast Pegasus deb      February 17
     16939   86- 68 D   Molniya 1-68 r2       February 18
     22521   93- 11 A   Astro D               February 18
     23419   94- 77 K   Cosmos 2297 deb       February 21
     23019   94- 14 A   Koronas 1             February 24
     15957   85- 70 E   Raduga 16 aux motor      March 17
     22233   92- 79 C   GPS 2-16 r2              March 19
     16609   86- 17 A   Mir                      March 21  Note 3
     19733   88-115 D   Molniya 1-74 r2          March 27
     23029   94- 16 C   GPS 2-24 r2              March 27
     25013   97- 63 A   STEP M4                  March 31
      5143   71- 31 B   Meteor 1-8 r             April
     23133   94- 35 B   UHF F/O 3 r              April
     11458   79- 67 B   Cosmos 1116 r              May
     25107   97- 82 D   Iridium 48                 May
     11252   79-  5 B   Meteor 1-29 r              May
    
    Notes
    
    1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    2. No recent elsets.
    
    3. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its
    current orbit. In fact, there are plans to deorbit it in late-February.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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