SatEvo decay list #110 (issued 2000 December 29) This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe. Information about SeeSat-L is available at http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days. Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their decay by 2001 February 20, although some larger and/or more interesting decayers are included beyond that date. This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,400 satellites. This is available in zipped form from the same address. I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ This includes my predicted elsets for these objects. # Designation Name ----- Decay (2000) ----- Predicted Actual? 22380 92- 93 BV C 2227 Zenit deb December 9.9 24743 97- 9 B Intelsat 801 Ariane r December 12.41 25124 97- 85 B Early Bird r December 12.73 26417 99- 57 JN CBERS LM4 deb December 12.9 25422 98- 46 K Orbcomm 13 Peg r2 December 14.34 16480 79- 17 FE Solwind deb December 16.7 17628 81- 53 LA Cosmos 1275 deb December 17.1 26433 99- 57 KE CBERS LM4 deb December 18.5 22067 92- 47 H C 2204 Proton r2 December 19.30 19830 78-100 AN C 1045 SL-14 deb December 19.7 24221 94- 29 KU STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 20.3 18719 87-109 E Ekran 17 aux motor December 20.89 4618 70- 89 E Cosmos 374 deb December 23.1 24140 94- 29 GP STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 26.4 15538 71- 15 CV Cosmos 397 deb December 27.1 26153 99- 57 AP CBERS LM4 deb December 28.3 Note 1 24429 94- 29 SH STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 28.6 Note 1 4392 70- 34 B Mao 1 CZ-1 r December 29.23 24089 94- 29 EL STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 29 24154 94- 29 HD STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 29 26051 93- 9 D OXP 1 Pegasus deb December 29? Note 2 26252 99- 57 EN CBERS LM4 deb December 29 25529 98- 66 C Iridium 85 December 30.7 24181 94- 29 JG STEP-2 Pegasus deb December 31 2001 4584 70- 85 B Meteor 1-6 r January 1 24458 94- 29 TF STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 1 25553 64- 49 H Cosmos 41 deb January 1 22465 92- 93 FE C 2227 Zenit deb January 4 23854 96- 25 B Cosmos 2332 r January 4 20456 77- 65 GD GMS 1 Dlt deb January 5? Note 2 25224 87- 68 BB Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb January 5 26458 99- 57 LD CBERS LM4 deb January 7 4647 70- 25 AF Nimbus 4 ThAg deb January 8 16243 85-105 D Cosmos 1701 r January 8 26318 99- 57 HB CBERS LM4 deb January 8 12196 78- 26 AM Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb January 9 14915 78- 26 GQ Landsat 3 Delta 1 deb January 9 22925 93- 72 E Gorizont 29 aux mot January 9 24745 97- 10 B Zeya r January 9 26421 99- 57 JS CBERS LM4 deb January 9 14520 83-114 D Molniya 1-59 r2 January 10 22659 93- 32 C GPS 2-20 r2 January 10 16110 85- 90 A Cosmos 1689 January 11 26325 99- 57 HJ CBERS LM4 deb January 11 25576 65-109 G Transit 10 deb January 12 26223 99- 57 DM CBERS LM4 deb January 12 24176 94- 29 JB STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 18 24455 95- 58 H C 2322 Zenit deb January 18 25451 87- 68 BY Metr 2-16 Tsyklon deb January 18 15758 68- 91 CZ Cosmos 249 deb January 20 22452 92- 93 ER C 2227 Zenit deb January 21 24217 94- 29 KQ STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 23 23982 94- 29 AC STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 26 24361 94- 29 PN STEP-2 Pegasus deb January 27 3687 68- 97 AE Cosmos 252 deb January 30 26303 86- 73 D NOAA 10 deb January 30 25313 98- 24 C Nilesat Ariane 44P r February 3 26097 00- 4 N Picosat deb February 3 26606 00- 71 B Navstar 49 Delta 2 r February 4 8432 72- 58 FM Landsat 1 Delta 1 deb February 6 25720 89-100 BR C 2053 Tsyklon-3 deb February 8 26537 83- 44 FR Cosmos 1461 deb February 9 16112 85- 91 A Molniya 3-26 February 10 26328 99- 57 HM CBERS LM4 deb February 10 25314 98- 24 D Nilesat Ariane Spelda February 11 26062 00- 4 B OCS February 11 16125 85- 91 D Molniya 3-26 r2 February 12 26263 99- 57 EZ CBERS LM4 deb February 12 22986 94- 8 F Raduga 1-3 Proton deb February 13 24385 94- 29 QN STEP-2 Pegasus deb February 14 3560 68- 97 N Cosmos 252 deb February 17 20094 89- 48 F Raduga 1-1 aux motor February 17 25076 96- 49 H Fast Pegasus deb February 17 16939 86- 68 D Molniya 1-68 r2 February 18 22521 93- 11 A Astro D February 18 23419 94- 77 K Cosmos 2297 deb February 21 23019 94- 14 A Koronas 1 February 24 15957 85- 70 E Raduga 16 aux motor March 17 22233 92- 79 C GPS 2-16 r2 March 19 16609 86- 17 A Mir March 21 Note 3 19733 88-115 D Molniya 1-74 r2 March 27 23029 94- 16 C GPS 2-24 r2 March 27 25013 97- 63 A STEP M4 March 31 5143 71- 31 B Meteor 1-8 r April 23133 94- 35 B UHF F/O 3 r April 11458 79- 67 B Cosmos 1116 r May 25107 97- 82 D Iridium 48 May 11252 79- 5 B Meteor 1-29 r May Notes 1. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay. 2. No recent elsets. 3. The estimate for #16609, Mir, assumes a natural decay from its current orbit. In fact, there are plans to deorbit it in late-February. Alan -- Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl Edinburgh / SatEvo & elsets: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/ Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ * ----------------------------------------------------------------- Unsubscribe from SeeSat-L by sending a message with 'unsubscribe' in the SUBJECT to SeeSat-L-request@lists.satellite.eu.org http://www2.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
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