Decay watch: 2000 Dec 29

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Fri Dec 29 2000 - 11:27:59 PST

  • Next message: Jonathan T Wojack: "Observation, 12-26-2000"

    A summary of my updated Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4392 = 70- 34 B = Mao 1 Long March 1 rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 29 10:30     Dec 29 05:44 +-1h         3.7 N     3.5 W
    SatEvo     Dec 29 18:45     Dec 29 05:36 +-45m        3.5 S     6.0 W
    
    Final elset:
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       156 x 147 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00364.13993056  .21206003  55916-5  54314-3 0  4913
    2 04392  68.2857 177.7159 0006876 124.1262  36.8654 16.45462359521430
    
    Note: The final elset shows this running 23 sec late against 
    yesterday's SatEvo prediction. i put the decay northbound over
    the Atlantic, SW of the Gulf of Guinea on a track that would carry
    it between Abidjan , Cote d'Ivoire, and Accra, Ghana, at 05:38 UTC.
    My predicted elset for the start of the final rev:
    Mao 1 r          4.0  2.0  0.0  6.2 d  5.2       144 x 137 km
    1 04392U 70034B   00364.17347922  .54100917  28179+1  66331-3 0 94912
    2 04392  68.2837 177.6016 0005700 124.0775 235.9766 16.49609632521440
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #4584 = 70- 85 B = Meteor 1-6 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 29 06:34     Jan  1 05:45 +-2d        19.6 S   166.1 E
    SatEvo     Dec 29 19:00     Jan  1 03:36 +-14h
    
    Latest elset:
    Meteor 1-6 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   11       206 x 197 km
    1 04584U 70085B   00364.54934463  .02084556 -95620-6  64658-3 0  4606
    2 04584  81.1580 359.4624 0007013 120.1596 240.0387 16.26603262654210
    
    SatEvo prediction: see Decay watch page.
    
    Note: The latest elset shows this running 1 sec early against the 
    prediction I posted yesterday.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25529 = 98- 66 C = Iridium 85
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Dec 29 18:50     Dec 30 17:59 +-14h       19.3 S   120.6 W
    SatEvo     Dec 29 19:10     Dec 30 17:18 +-6h        10.9 S    70.6 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Iridium 85 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  9.3       206 x 197 km
    1 25529U 98066C   00364.70940483  .05231075 -14104-5  16000-2 0  8559
    2 25529  85.9785 249.4506 0006935 168.1217 192.0419 16.26824057119936
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Iridium 85 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  9.3       150 x 146 km
    1 25529U 98066C   00365.62809049  .34012541  92450+0  76889-3 0 98554
    2 25529  85.9718 248.8688 0003103 164.0787 195.9310 16.46621973120081
    Iridium 85 tum   4.0  1.8  0.0  6.0 d  9.3       133 x 131 km
    1 25529U 98066C   00365.68876966  .82271725  56993+1  66626-3 0 98557
    2 25529  85.9702 248.8295 0002072 163.8058 196.2008 16.52768014120094
    
    Note: The latest elset has this 21 sec late against the prediction 
    I posted yesterday. I estimate that this will decay southbound over
    the Indian Ocean, possibly near Diego Garcia.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Fri Dec 29 2000 - 15:43:22 PST