Decay watch: 2002 December 7

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Dec 07 2002 - 10:49:38 EST

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    Updates for my Decay watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #17131 = 86- 19 AA = Spot 1 rocket deb AA
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  7 04:22     Dec  8 04:36 +-15h        3.4 S    95.2 E
    SatEvo     Dec  7 15:15     Dec  8 00:08 +-4h         0.0     162.0 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Spot 1 r AA      2.6  0.0  0.0  6.3 d  2.9       237 x 227 km
    1 17131U 86019AA  02341.48184238  .05578447  15027+0  71652-2 0  4379
    2 17131  97.8429  59.8246 0007402 302.1493  57.9189 16.15426920718666
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay watch page.
    (ends)
    Spot 1 r AA      2.6  0.0  0.0  6.3 d  2.9       190 x 185 km
    1 17131U 86019AA  02341.91373554  .44786481  14411+1  85983-2 0 94378
    2 17131  97.8371  60.3472 0003583 300.4123  59.5523 16.31942548718732
    Spot 1 r AA      2.6  0.0  0.0  6.3 d  2.9       167 x 164 km
    1 17131U 86019AA  02341.97492493 1.16921411  13183+2  92426-2 0 94378
    2 17131  97.8345  60.4226 0002258 300.1613  59.8163 16.40280027718741
    
    Note: I estimate that this will decay over the western Pacific Ocean
    near the southbound equator crossing on the final predicted rev above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22658 = 93- 32 B = GPS 2-20 Delta 2 rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  6 22:23     Dec  8 16:50 +-1d        16.3 N    33.2 E
    SatEvo     Dec  7 15:25     Dec  8 11:47 +-6h        21.9 S    33.6 W
    
    Latest elset:
    GPS 2-20 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       200 x 193 km
    1 22658U 93032B   02341.53229509  .04003381 -17503-4  92794-3 0  6974
    2 22658  21.9238 325.2039 0005439  58.7365 301.3656 16.28581285526394
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    GPS 2-20 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       159 x 155 km
    1 22658U 93032B   02342.32575393  .24236191  55485+0  10857-2 0 96979
    2 22658  21.9218 318.5502 0002537  70.5817 289.4456 16.43369601526524
    GPS 2-20 r1      5.9  2.4  0.0  5.0 v   13       148 x 146 km
    1 22658U 93032B   02342.38638411  .43014194  20286+1  93018-3 0 96977
    2 22658  21.9213 318.0339 0001958  71.5010 288.5201 16.47200177526539
    
    Note: My estimate has this decaying near southern apex on the orbit
    following the final predicted rev above, placing it over the Atlantic
    to the east of Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27541 = 02- 48 B = Integral Proton rocket
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec  6 20:26     Dec  8 20:47 +-1d        51.1 N    94.6 W
    SatEvo     Dec  7 15:40     Dec  9 01:29 +-12h
    
    Latest elset:
    Integral r1      6.0  2.5  0.0  4.0 d   20       250 x 147 km
    1 27541U 02048B   02341.38237002  .04037055  12046-4  28052-3 0  1294
    2 27541  51.5378 200.9637 0078351 279.6207  79.6842 16.27909536  8073
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Sat Dec 07 2002 - 11:01:42 EST