Decay watch: 2002 December 12

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Thu Dec 12 2002 - 15:33:06 EST

  • Next message: Bjorn Gimle: "Re: Decay watch: 2002 December 12"

    A summary from my Decay Watch page:
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25694 = 99- 21 B = Uosat cover
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec 12 09:52     Dec 12 09:18 +-35m       54.4 S   169.3 E
    SatEvo     Dec 12 19:45     Dec 12 08:09 +-30m       21.1 N   121.8 W
    
    Final elsets:
    Uosat cover      1.0  0.0  0.0  8.5 d  3.5       166 x 163 km
    1 25694U 99021B   02346.27482644  .30406365  77776-5  21521-2 0  2542
    2 25694  64.4997  71.0519 0002415 295.5149  64.6056 16.40638445199161
    Uosat cover      1.0  0.0  0.0  8.5 d  3.5       705 x -332 km
    1 25694U 99021B   02346.33561763  .43363367  00000-0  13857+0 0  2548
    2 25694  64.2315  70.7268 0790569 290.8810  48.0477 16.32473860199170
    
    Note: The final elset is clearly erroneous. Ignoring it, I get a decay
    rather close in time to the epoch of the final elset with the object
    northbound to the W of Mexico on a track that would take it to Yuma,
    Arizona, at 08:12 UTC and onwards over Utah and Wyoming to North
    Dakota (08:17).
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26215 = 99- 57 DD = CBERS 1 CZ-4 rocket debris
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec 11 19:43     Dec 13 19:56 +-1d        59.3 S   137.2 E
    SatEvo     Dec 12 20:00     Dec 13 14:19 +-12h       25.4 N   157.8 W
    
    Latest elset:
    CBERS 1 r DbDD   1.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.2       294 x 273 km
    1 26215U 99057DD  02345.97543102  .03293612  14197-1  93674-2 0  9542
    2 26215  98.5395 140.9606 0015663 324.9569  35.0665 15.96663235148747
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    CBERS 1 r DbDD   1.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.2       203 x 196 km
    1 26215U 99057DD  02347.46968725  .39734843  92357+0  11456-1 0 99543
    2 26215  98.5285 142.8866 0005304 319.1837  40.7766 16.27484635148980
    CBERS 1 r DbDD   1.0  1.0  0.0  7.5 d  1.2       185 x 180 km
    1 26215U 99057DD  02347.53106605  .72312253  34037+1  11412-1 0 99540
    2 26215  98.5266 142.9683 0003962 318.9384  41.0317 16.33912029148996
    
    Note: SCC is still only releasing one elset per day for this, which
    makes my analysis more difficult. My estimate is for decay just after
    passing over the Hawaiian Is on the orbit after the final predicted
    one above.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27517 = 02- 42 C = DRTS H-2A r
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Dec 11 22:53     Dec 11 22:44 +-7m        30.0 S    79.0 E
    SatEvo     Dec 12 20:15     Dec 11 22:28 +-20m       14.5 S    11.3 E
    
    Final elset:
    DRTS r DPAdpt    1.5  3.0  0.0  6.0 d    5       156 x 151 km
    1 27517U 02042C   02345.90096935  .57055263 -49874-5  20186-2 0  1627
    2 27517  30.3822 223.0871 0004276 195.9065 164.5322 16.44701409 14452
    
    Note: I show this decaying following the southbound equator crossing on
    the above orbit, putting it just to the W of Angola.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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