RE: Optical 19 Dec 2006

From: Ted Molczan (molczanseesat@rogers.com)
Date: Tue Dec 19 2006 - 20:20:29 EST

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    Greg, congratulations on your recovery of 05042A. Here are estimated elements:
    
    USA 186         15.0  4.0  0.0  5.3 v
    1 28888U 05042A   06353.77110617  .00010748  00000-0  11000-3 0    00
    2 28888  97.9408  53.2839 0555000 246.2000 108.0092 14.72000000    06
    
    The mean motion is based on my hunch that since the object was last observed, a
    major manoeuvre was made, most likely within a few days of Nov 14, when perigee
    was near the equator. USA 161 (01044A / 26934) likely would have manoeuvred
    about the same time, which would explain its non-appearance when Greg tried to
    observe it on Nov 21. As far as I know, that was the first reliable reported
    non-obs since the last observation on Oct 28.
    
    If I am wrong about 05042A's mean motion, and it is closer to the other extreme,
    say 14.77 rev/d, then after 15 revs it will be at least 5 min early, so I
    recommend an allowance at least that long.
    
    Ted Molczan
    
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