RE: Soyuz TMA-19M launch orbit estimations

From: Jon . via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_satobs.org>
Date: Mon, 14 Dec 2015 23:59:24 +0100
TsUP published the delta-v maneuver data:

http://www.mcc.rsa.ru/sojuztma_19m/start.htm

So, this is the revised estimation:

Hello all;

The Soyuz TMA-19M spacecraft is expected to take off tomorrow 2015/12/15 at
11:03:09 UTC from Tyura-Tam Gagarin's pad. It will fly with the Soyuz-FG
rocket and they will try the fast 4-orbits renzezvous. Docking is aimed to
be at 17:24:09 UTC +- 3 minutes.

This TLE is the initial orbit estimation, just after spacecraft release
after SC separation from rocket, about nine minutes after launch:


SOYUZ-TMA 19M #0                                         198 X 214 km
1 70000U 15500A   15349.46667824 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    05
2 70000  51.6440 259.2934 0011851  54.4267  28.0135 16.25069103    09

Epoch is set at spacecraft separation & orbit enter time.

At 11:48:15 UTC is expected to occur the fisrt maneuver. This orbit is
valid from first maneuver till the second one, at 12:32:29 UTC:

SOYUZ-TMA 19M #1                                         214 X 295 km
1 70001U 15501A   15349.49306713 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    07
2 70001  51.6439 259.1479 0061649 228.9167   7.9357 16.07220174    07

At 12:32:29 UTC the second maneuver will be made. This elset is valid from
this time till ~13:06 UTC:

SOYUZ-TMA 19M #2                                         294 X 296 km
1 70002U 15502A   15349.52362269 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    01
2 70002  51.6439 258.9836 0001643 293.3363 120.3768 15.92638602    02

There are no more data on TsUP's page about the burns. Hoewer, this third
elset could be reasonably close since 13:06 UTC till near-docking times:

SOYUZ-TMA 19M #3                                         295 X 375 km
1 70003U 15503A   15349.54670139 0.00000000  00000-0  00000+0 0    03
2 70003  51.6441 258.8618 0059201 185.5872   0.5206 15.78391758    01

Time uncertainty is expected to be about a minute since launch till docking
and several degrees on track error on high elevation skies.


Soyuz-FG's third stage should re-enter in the next few days.


There are good passes over Europe about 1-2 hours before docking. Also,
there are good visual passes over Asia in the first two revolutions,
specially over Baikonur.
If clouded, Marco Langbroek informed on Twitter about the frequencies of
the Soyuz, that they are activated on Netherlands because the spacecraft
enters in range of russian tracking stations:

https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/675378691015340032
https://twitter.com/Marco_Langbroek/status/675378849149005826


Be good!

Jon.


-- 
Jon, COSPAR 6242, 42.9453, -2.82839, 623m, Bitoriano, Basque Country.
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Received on Mon Dec 14 2015 - 17:00:18 UTC

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