Op 16-11-2021 om 08:29 schreef Richard Cole: > I doubt the interceptor achieves orbital velocity (or greater in order to catch up). The ASAT interceptor is launched downrange so debris from the interceptor will impact away from the launch site. The faster target approaches the interceptor from the anti-velocity direction, the interceptor has to manoeuvre to 'get in the way', so to speak. Just before the weekend, taking advantage of the first sets of orbital elements for the debris issues the day before by CSpOC, I posted this analysis: https://sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2021/12/some-first-analytical-results-on-debris.html It includes a distribution of the ejection velocities I calculated for 207 Kosmos 1408 fragments, based on the change in orbit relative to the original (pre-ASAT) satellite's orbit. It compares it to similar data from the USA 193 intercept and the Indian ASAT test of 2019. The analysis seems to confirm that this was a relatively low kinetic energy event: compared to the other two ASAT events, the distribution of ejection velocities peaks at somewhat lower velocities and is more compact, lacking the tail towards higher ejection velocities (> 200 meter/s) that the debris from the other two events show. Of course, it should be realized here that this is based on early, incomplete data, and there might be instrumental bias involved that is biased against detecting debris with higher ejection velocities in this stage of tracking. Still, the overall picture seems to fit a low-energy event with the target rear-ending into the warhead rather than taking a high-speed hit face-on. - Marco ----- Dr Marco Langbroek - SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands. e-mail: sattrackcam_at_langbroek.org launchtower: http://launchtower.langbroek.org Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com Twitter: _at_Marco_Langbroek ----- _______________________________________________ Seesat-l mailing list http://mailman.satobs.org/mailman/listinfo/seesat-lReceived on Sun Dec 05 2021 - 07:17:05 UTC
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