Re: USSF-52 OTV 7 estimated elset

From: Marco Langbroek via Seesat-l <seesat-l_at_lists.seesatmail.org>
Date: Mon, 11 Dec 2023 19:51:19 +0100
hi all,

After discussions with Jonathan McDowell and Ted Molczan, I have slightly
revised my orbit estimates for USSF-52 OTV 7, which should launch in about 6
hours from now, around 1:14 UTC (12 December).

I used the fact that the Navigational Warning for the apparent second stage
deorbit area south of Alaska was later re-issued as NAVAREA XII 854.

This NavWarning contains a time constraint that the original did not have (the
original opened at launch time): it opens at 12:53 UTC (Dec 11). With the
4-minute shift in launch time between Dec 11 and Dec 12, that becomes 12:49 UTC
(Dec 12).

So I constructed an orbit that arrives over the area of NAVAREA XII 854 around
12:49 UTC. This means I had to increase the apogee altitude from 35188 km to
37700 km.

The resulting orbit has a daily precession of 4m 22s, matching the 4-minute
shift in launch time (from 1:18 to 1:14 UTC) between 11 and 12 December, as Ted
Molczan noted in a private communication.

This is the resulting estimated elset:

USSF-52 OTV 7                  for launch on 12 Dec 2023 01:14:00 UTC
1 70000U 23999A   23346.07013889  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    06
2 70000 074.0000 325.5453 7407989 135.5462 360.0000 02.15472011    09


I also slightly revised the initial low orbit USSF-52 is launched into before
doing the dogleg into HEO.

My initial estimate with ~48 degrees orbital inclination was based on the
azimuth of area A from NAVAREA IV 1414. After comments by Jonathan, I tried to
get something that better fits Areas B and C as well, and arrived at 51.5
degrees orbital inclination:


USSF-52 initial orbit          for launch on 12 Dec 2023 01:14:00 UTC
1 70001U 23999A   23346.05138889  .00000000  00000-0  00000-0 0    03
2 70001 051.5000 354.4138 0011414 048.2332 322.9851 16.30015116    06


Note that this all strongly hinches on whether the area south of Alaska is
indeed related to USSF-52 and not something else. This is not 100% sure.

The elsets should be treated as ballpark figures only, and there is always the
possibility of subsequent further orbital adjustments of the payload post-release.


- Marco


-----
Dr Marco Langbroek  -  SatTrackCam Leiden, the Netherlands.
e-mail: sattrackcam_at_langbroek.org

launchtower:    http://launchtower.langbroek.org
Station (b)log: http://sattrackcam.blogspot.com
Twitter:        _at_Marco_Langbroek
-----


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Received on Mon Dec 11 2023 - 10:51:36 UTC

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