FSW-1 decay

bjorn@tt-tech.se
Mon, 19 Feb 1996 11:39:11 +0100

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NASA OIG predicts the decay of FSW-1 on March 07 (96067).

I have followed the orbital elements from Aug.-95, and
fitted mathematical functions to Mean Motion and its
derivative, ndot2, to extrapolate the decay.

I have also tried to use NPOE to integrate the orbit.

Neither method gives dependable, consistent results.
The actual decay is almost linear since Aug.-95, with
superimposed oscillations, with its maximum decay rates
when perigee is near the equator ( around Jul.26, Nov.04
and Feb.04). If this were to continue, FSW should survive
until end of April !

See attached .gif file !

On the other hand, fitting a simple curve to elset MM and
ndot values Jan.02-Feb.15 give a decay on Mar.03.
NPOE parameters adjusted to fit the same elsets give Mar.12.
If the ndot2 values decrease as I expect ( but which is not
evident in the NPOE extrapolation ), FSW-1 should decay
later than Mar.12.

FSW-1 is now ending a period of morning visibility at
northern apex ( moving south ), and will become visible
in the evenings early March (beginning at low latitudes)

[[ 22870-ED.GIF : 2601 in 22870-ED.GIF ]]
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 -- bjorn@tt-tech.se                +46-8-59095739         --
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