Re: predicted decay of 97 3B, Soyuz rocket
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 12 Feb 1997 09:51:19 +0000
In message <199702120557.AA16985@gila>, Mike McCants <mike@comshare.com>
writes
>I believe that the Soyuz rocket will decay
>on Feb 12 about 21:30UT.
>...
One more elset has been published since Mike's posting:
Soyuz-U 198 x 171 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.17842732 .04549865 12243-4 65763-3 0 165
2 24718 51.6172 354.1540 0020870 81.4297 278.9109 16.33096454 261
My SatEvo analyses are in pretty good agreement with Mike's prediction.
The following predicted elements are from a(nother) version of SatEvo
which allows me to experiment with different scale heights for the
atmosphere to obtain better fits to past elsets. The indicated decay is
at about 22.30 UT on February 12. A "classical" SatEvo analysis gives
decay 2.7 hours later.
Soyuz-U 198 x 171 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.17840963 .04940187 17829-1 70989-3 0 90168
2 24718 51.6172 354.1541 0020870 81.4296 278.8067 16.33121292 262
Soyuz-U 196 x 169 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.23958531 .05289390 20699-1 71591-3 0 90168
2 24718 51.6170 353.8114 0020010 81.6856 278.5412 16.33746555 279
Soyuz-U 193 x 168 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.30073665 .05697953 24397-1 72229-3 0 90168
2 24718 51.6168 353.4685 0019111 81.9418 278.2750 16.34417753 281
Soyuz-U 191 x 167 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.36186178 .06184778 29252-1 72927-3 0 90165
2 24718 51.6166 353.1254 0018169 82.1981 278.0081 16.35143167 290
Soyuz-U 188 x 165 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.42295850 .06775889 35787-1 73701-3 0 90160
2 24718 51.6164 352.7821 0017175 82.4545 277.7405 16.35933774 307
Soyuz-U 185 x 164 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.48402410 .07510515 44899-1 74568-3 0 90168
2 24718 51.6162 352.4385 0016121 82.7112 277.4720 16.36804434 319
Soyuz-U 182 x 162 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.54505525 .08450937 58184-1 75556-3 0 90168
2 24718 51.6159 352.0947 0014994 82.9680 277.2025 16.37776026 326
Soyuz-U 178 x 160 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.60604765 .09702692 78725-1 76705-3 0 90160
2 24718 51.6156 351.7506 0013775 83.2251 276.9316 16.38879310 335
Soyuz-U 174 x 157 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.66699558 .11456773 11156+0 78053-3 0 90160
2 24718 51.6153 351.4062 0012439 83.4824 276.6608 16.40162534 348
Soyuz-U 168 x 154 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.72789098 .14081058 17463+0 74821-3 0 90165
2 24718 51.6149 351.0614 0010942 83.7401 276.3875 16.41705506 350
Soyuz-U 162 x 150 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.78872162 .18601787 36014+0 65985-3 0 90161
2 24718 51.6142 350.7161 0009207 83.9981 276.1086 16.43665617 366
Soyuz-U 153 x 144 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.84946587 .28594609 96976+0 59632-3 0 90161
2 24718 51.6134 350.3701 0007060 84.2565 275.8239 16.46436956 372
Soyuz-U 137 x 132 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.91007050 .77024973 10397+2 64716-3 0 90162
2 24718 51.6120 350.0231 0003865 84.5158 275.5282 16.51786642 384
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224