Re: predicted decay of 97 3B, Soyuz rocket

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 12 Feb 1997 09:51:19 +0000

In message <199702120557.AA16985@gila>, Mike McCants <mike@comshare.com>
writes
>I believe that the Soyuz rocket will decay
>on Feb 12 about 21:30UT.
>...

One more elset has been published since Mike's posting:
Soyuz-U                                          198 x 171 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.17842732  .04549865  12243-4  65763-3 0   165
2 24718  51.6172 354.1540 0020870  81.4297 278.9109 16.33096454   261

My SatEvo analyses are in pretty good agreement with Mike's prediction.
The following predicted elements are from a(nother) version of SatEvo
which allows me to experiment with different scale heights for the
atmosphere to obtain better fits to past elsets. The indicated decay is
at about 22.30 UT on February 12. A "classical" SatEvo analysis gives
decay 2.7 hours later.

Soyuz-U                                          198 x 171 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.17840963  .04940187  17829-1  70989-3 0 90168
2 24718  51.6172 354.1541 0020870  81.4296 278.8067 16.33121292   262
Soyuz-U                                          196 x 169 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.23958531  .05289390  20699-1  71591-3 0 90168
2 24718  51.6170 353.8114 0020010  81.6856 278.5412 16.33746555   279
Soyuz-U                                          193 x 168 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.30073665  .05697953  24397-1  72229-3 0 90168
2 24718  51.6168 353.4685 0019111  81.9418 278.2750 16.34417753   281
Soyuz-U                                          191 x 167 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.36186178  .06184778  29252-1  72927-3 0 90165
2 24718  51.6166 353.1254 0018169  82.1981 278.0081 16.35143167   290
Soyuz-U                                          188 x 165 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.42295850  .06775889  35787-1  73701-3 0 90160
2 24718  51.6164 352.7821 0017175  82.4545 277.7405 16.35933774   307
Soyuz-U                                          185 x 164 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.48402410  .07510515  44899-1  74568-3 0 90168
2 24718  51.6162 352.4385 0016121  82.7112 277.4720 16.36804434   319
Soyuz-U                                          182 x 162 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.54505525  .08450937  58184-1  75556-3 0 90168
2 24718  51.6159 352.0947 0014994  82.9680 277.2025 16.37776026   326
Soyuz-U                                          178 x 160 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.60604765  .09702692  78725-1  76705-3 0 90160
2 24718  51.6156 351.7506 0013775  83.2251 276.9316 16.38879310   335
Soyuz-U                                          174 x 157 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.66699558  .11456773  11156+0  78053-3 0 90160
2 24718  51.6153 351.4062 0012439  83.4824 276.6608 16.40162534   348
Soyuz-U                                          168 x 154 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.72789098  .14081058  17463+0  74821-3 0 90165
2 24718  51.6149 351.0614 0010942  83.7401 276.3875 16.41705506   350
Soyuz-U                                          162 x 150 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.78872162  .18601787  36014+0  65985-3 0 90161
2 24718  51.6142 350.7161 0009207  83.9981 276.1086 16.43665617   366
Soyuz-U                                          153 x 144 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.84946587  .28594609  96976+0  59632-3 0 90161
2 24718  51.6134 350.3701 0007060  84.2565 275.8239 16.46436956   372
Soyuz-U                                          137 x 132 km
1 24718U 97003B   97043.91007050  .77024973  10397+2  64716-3 0 90162
2 24718  51.6120 350.0231 0003865  84.5158 275.5282 16.51786642   384

Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W  156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:    alan@wingar.demon.co.uk      +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224