Soyuz rocket (97- 3B) - decay watch
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 12 Feb 1997 23:36:24 +0000
After a gap of almost 9 hours, OIG have yielded another elset for the
decaying Soyuz rocket. The two latest elsets are:
Soyuz-U 189 x 162 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.48408757 .05888469 12352-4 59726-3 0 209
2 24718 51.6228 352.4352 0020133 78.0567 282.2667 16.36351866 316
Soyuz-U 167 x 153 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.84987851 .09654105 12478-4 46345-3 0 211
2 24718 51.6130 350.3809 0010658 83.5779 276.6559 16.42175977 376
These show it running 4 and 34 seconds late with respect to the SatEvo
orbital evolution I posted earlier today.
I now predict that decay will occur at about February 13.10 (approx
02.30 UT). Predicted elsets for the final revs are:
Soyuz-U 161 x 148 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.91066281 .15706859 22557+0 48548-3 0 90215
2 24718 51.6125 350.0355 0009277 83.8360 276.2697 16.44281674 381
Soyuz-U 154 x 144 km
1 24718U 97003B 97043.97139412 .21276234 45402+0 43362-3 0 90217
2 24718 51.6119 349.6894 0007653 84.0946 275.9926 16.46489193 395
Soyuz-U 144 x 136 km
1 24718U 97003B 97044.03202662 .35124595 14542+1 40658-3 0 90217
2 24718 51.6110 349.3426 0005578 84.3538 275.7098 16.49750716 403
Soyuz-U 118 x 116 km
1 24718U 97003B 97044.09247764 3.62050884 50000+2 11536-2 0 90219
2 24718 51.6096 348.9943 0001818 84.6141 275.4066 16.58593819 413
With its northern apex (the most northerly point in its orbit) over N
America at the suggested decay time, and with perigee within a few
degrees of this point, there is a chance that the decay will be
observable by some SeeSaters. Ground tracks for the final two passes:
Time (UT) Lat(N) Long (W)
h m
01 00 41.5 124.7
01 05 50.2 99.0
01 10 51.0 67.6
02 30 47.6 132.3
02 35 51.8 102.4
02 40 47.1 72.1
Good luck!
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR site 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | Royal Observatory: A.Pickup@roe.ac.uk +44 (0)131 668 8224