Decay watch: February 7

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Sun, 7 Feb 1999 17:30:30 +0000

Since my update yesterday, SpaceCom has issued this decay notice for the
PAM-D rocket:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#22584 = GPS 2-19 r2              Feb  7 06:41     Feb 10 04:43 +-2d

The latest elset is:

GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            705 x 136 km
1 22584U 93017D   99038.57783893  .08728936  13423-5  74057-3 0  1955
2 22584  34.4669 141.7972 0418534  39.4856 323.5576 15.48668463136121

As Harro has posted, SpaceCom's decay date has moved all of 33 hours
earlier and closer to his estimates, the latest being for February 9 at
22:05 UTC +-5h. My own SatEvo analysis brings my prediction forward by a
more modest 14 hours to February 10.5 +-0.6 day.

SatEvo-generated elsets:

GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            660 x 135 km
1 22584U 93017D   99039.02794986  .09208492  69183-2  71131-3 0 91952
2 22584  34.4650 138.8125 0387348  43.8274 319.1828 15.56486457136197
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            604 x 134 km
1 22584U 93017D   99039.53941309  .10473803  99172-2  70124-3 0 91955
2 22584  34.4627 135.3771 0347966  48.8251 314.1250 15.66514402136278
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            539 x 133 km
1 22584U 93017D   99040.04735715  .12371955  15695-1  69405-3 0 91959
2 22584  34.4602 131.9123 0302959  53.8659 308.9005 15.78043952136353


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
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