Decay watch: February 8
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 8 Feb 1999 22:43:50 +0000
Today's SpaceCom decay notices:
Object Notice issued Predicted decay
UTC UTC
#22584 = GPS 2-19 r2 Feb 8 09:07 Feb 10 09:15 +-1d
#16187 = Molniya 1-65 Feb 7 19:30 Feb 12 12:32 +-3d
#19771 = Gorizont 17 aux motor Feb 8 08:28 Feb 14 23:14 +-4d
The latest elsets for these:
Molniya 1-65 9666 x 80 km
1 16187U 85099A 99039.67699898 .36304712 20659-5 11611-2 0 2354
2 16187 61.7150 133.7445 4259780 261.6377 114.1978 7.27528674 97745
Gorizont 17 aux motor 901 x 143 km
1 19771U 89004E 99039.54557457 .04257336 87760-5 66546-3 0 4648
2 19771 46.3961 232.5396 0549440 355.9620 3.6775 15.14654499162018
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 589 x 134 km
1 22584U 93017D 99039.66659820 .09822062 13448-5 65805-3 0 2032
2 22584 34.4604 134.4865 0336902 50.2907 312.6980 15.69128387136291
-------------------------------
The above elset for #22584, the GPS 2-19 PAM-D rocket, has it running 14
seconds early on my prediction of yesterday. A new fit to the recent
elsets leads to decay at February 10.64 (15:16 UTC +-10h).
New SatEvo prediction:
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 543 x 133 km
1 22584U 93017D 99040.04730738 .11309706 13136-1 66469-3 0 92038
2 22584 34.4585 131.8859 0305301 54.0743 308.7210 15.77235883136350
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 474 x 131 km
1 22584U 93017D 99040.55162997 .13955816 23573-1 66154-3 0 92038
2 22584 34.4557 128.3900 0256465 59.1608 303.3377 15.89847260136434
GPS 2-19 r2 3.0 1.5 0.0 6.5 d 386 x 129 km
1 22584U 93017D 99041.05141421 .19581419 61095-1 67062-3 0 92033
2 22584 34.4521 124.8543 0194059 64.3056 297.6858 16.06165281136518
-------------------------------
My dacay dates for the other two objects are:
# Designation Name Predicted decay (UTC)
16187 85- 99 A Molniya 1-65 February 13.31 +-1.0d
19771 89- 4 E Gorizont 17 aux mot February 15.7 +-1.4d
Prediction for the Molniya:
Molniya 1-65 9064 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99040.05739939 .41023206 28213-1 11891-2 0 92350
2 16187 61.7147 133.3650 4102445 261.6868 51.0472 7.57730703 97777
Molniya 1-65 8651 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99040.31806060 .43336891 31019-1 11964-2 0 92357
2 16187 61.7145 133.0906 3988941 261.7224 52.3052 7.79710546 97792
Molniya 1-65 8246 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99040.57138981 .45813026 34159-1 12044-2 0 92355
2 16187 61.7143 132.8117 3873474 261.7585 53.5880 8.02284606 97810
Molniya 1-65 7849 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A 99040.81760406 .48470890 37839-1 12132-2 0 92352
2 16187 61.7140 132.5280 3755910 261.7953 54.8966 8.25487654 97832
Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/