Decay watch: February 8

Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Mon, 8 Feb 1999 22:43:50 +0000

Today's SpaceCom decay notices:

Object                            Notice issued    Predicted decay
                                       UTC              UTC

#22584 = GPS 2-19 r2              Feb  8 09:07     Feb 10 09:15 +-1d

#16187 = Molniya 1-65             Feb  7 19:30     Feb 12 12:32 +-3d

#19771 = Gorizont 17 aux motor    Feb  8 08:28     Feb 14 23:14 +-4d

The latest elsets for these:

Molniya 1-65                                     9666 x 80 km
1 16187U 85099A   99039.67699898  .36304712  20659-5  11611-2 0  2354
2 16187  61.7150 133.7445 4259780 261.6377 114.1978  7.27528674 97745
Gorizont 17 aux motor                            901 x 143 km
1 19771U 89004E   99039.54557457  .04257336  87760-5  66546-3 0  4648
2 19771  46.3961 232.5396 0549440 355.9620   3.6775 15.14654499162018
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            589 x 134 km
1 22584U 93017D   99039.66659820  .09822062  13448-5  65805-3 0  2032
2 22584  34.4604 134.4865 0336902  50.2907 312.6980 15.69128387136291

               -------------------------------

The above elset for #22584, the GPS 2-19 PAM-D rocket, has it running 14
seconds early on my prediction of yesterday. A new fit to the recent
elsets leads to decay at February 10.64 (15:16 UTC +-10h).

New SatEvo prediction:
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            543 x 133 km
1 22584U 93017D   99040.04730738  .11309706  13136-1  66469-3 0 92038
2 22584  34.4585 131.8859 0305301  54.0743 308.7210 15.77235883136350
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            474 x 131 km
1 22584U 93017D   99040.55162997  .13955816  23573-1  66154-3 0 92038
2 22584  34.4557 128.3900 0256465  59.1608 303.3377 15.89847260136434
GPS 2-19 r2      3.0  1.5  0.0  6.5 d            386 x 129 km
1 22584U 93017D   99041.05141421  .19581419  61095-1  67062-3 0 92033
2 22584  34.4521 124.8543 0194059  64.3056 297.6858 16.06165281136518

               -------------------------------

My dacay dates for the other two objects are:

   #    Designation    Name               Predicted decay (UTC)

 16187   85- 99 A  Molniya 1-65          February 13.31 +-1.0d
 19771   89-  4 E  Gorizont 17 aux mot   February 15.7  +-1.4d

Prediction for the Molniya:

Molniya 1-65                                     9064 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99040.05739939  .41023206  28213-1  11891-2 0 92350
2 16187  61.7147 133.3650 4102445 261.6868  51.0472  7.57730703 97777
Molniya 1-65                                     8651 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99040.31806060  .43336891  31019-1  11964-2 0 92357
2 16187  61.7145 133.0906 3988941 261.7224  52.3052  7.79710546 97792
Molniya 1-65                                     8246 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99040.57138981  .45813026  34159-1  12044-2 0 92355
2 16187  61.7143 132.8117 3873474 261.7585  53.5880  8.02284606 97810
Molniya 1-65                                     7849 x 79 km
1 16187U 85099A   99040.81760406  .48470890  37839-1  12132-2 0 92352
2 16187  61.7140 132.5280 3755910 261.7953  54.8966  8.25487654 97832


Alan
-- 
 Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:   55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
 Edinburgh   | Home:   alan@wingar.demon.co.uk    +44 (0)131 477 9144
 Scotland    | SatEvo page:     http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/