Decay watch: February 17
Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Wed, 17 Feb 1999 19:02:35 +0000
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Object: #25627 = 99- 5 B = Telstar 6 Proton rocket
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 15 07:36 Feb 25 20:18 +-6d 51.6 N 158.7 E
SpaceCom Feb 15 10:26 Feb 20 21:45 +-3d 10.2 S 88.2 W
SpaceCom Feb 15 18:35 Feb 17 03:06 +-20h 10.5 N 159.6 W
SpaceCom Feb 16 02:21 Feb 17 00:57 +-14h 2.2 S 59.9 E
SpaceCom Feb 16 12:16 Feb 16 23:42 +-7h 34.5 N 113.8 E
SpaceCom Feb 16 17:03 Feb 16 22:58 +-4h 35.2 S 54.1 W
SpaceCom Feb 16 21:21 Feb 16 23:14 +-1h 45.9 S 33.3 E
SpaceCom Feb 16 23:41 Feb 16 23:14 +-1h 45.9 S 33.3 E
SatEvo Feb 15 21:00 Feb 16 23:21 +-6h 19 S 70 E
SatEvo Feb 16 20:55 Feb 16 22:42 +-1h 6 N 89 W
SatEvo Feb 17 18:00 Feb 16 22:42 +-1h 6 N 89 W
Final elset:
Telstar 6 Proton r 151 x 122 km
1 25627U 99005B 99047.85657796 .19897183 12758-4 14724-3 0 183
2 25627 51.5947 222.8413 0022164 277.8174 82.0400 16.51034891 268
Note: The final elset has it only 0.6 sec late on the final prediction
I posted here yesterday. A new analysis, using just the final three
elsets, again leads to decay at 22:42 UTC. However, this would imply
that it was still in orbit when it flew down the length of California
and Arizona only minutes earlier. If this was so, I am very surprised
that no elset was generated for that rather critical orbit - it should
have been along the lines of:
Telstar 6 Proton r 134 x 115 km
1 25627U 99005B 99047.91702511 .61258585 76775+1 26808-3 0 90180
2 25627 51.5934 222.4929 0014313 278.0780 81.7596 16.55659068 271
After all, elsets had been released for seven of the previous eight
orbits. I speculate that it may, indeed, have decayed prior to 22:30,
before it reached the west coast of the USA.
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Object: #13103 = 82- 6 C = OPS 2849 deb
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SpaceCom Feb 12 13:04 Feb 19 10:40 +-4d 54.5 S 91.1 E
SpaceCom Feb 14 22:09 Feb 18 19:47 +-2d 33.5 S 36.1 W
SpaceCom Feb 15 20:59 Feb 18 21:26 +-2d 74.8 S 84.4 W
SpaceCom Feb 16 20:55 Feb 18 20:46 +-1d 82.3 N 29.6 E
SatEvo Feb 12 19:40 Feb 21.1 +-3d
Note: Still no published elsets since that for 99041.17
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Alan
--
Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707: 55d53m48.7s N 3d11m51.2s W 156m asl
Edinburgh | Home: alan@wingar.demon.co.uk +44 (0)131 477 9144
Scotland | SatEvo page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/