Decay watch: 2000 Feb 14

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Mon Feb 14 2000 - 15:04:23 PST

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    #9854 = 77- 15 B = Cosmos 895 r
    
    I am in good agreement with SpaceCom in showing this decay at Feb 14
    07:24 UTC +-90m near 28.7 N, 116.9 E on a southbound pass over China. If
    it survived, it would have passed southwards over Western Australia
    between 07:35 and 07:39 UTC. My prediction for the elset at final
    northbound equator crossing:
    Cosmos 895 r     3.8  2.6  0.0  5.1 v   10       117 x 112 km
    1 09854U 77015B   00045.28308404 1.00262569  17375+2  32474-3 0 97168
    2 09854  81.1103 196.4386 0004337 282.5968  77.3547 16.59564312266690
    
    
    #25769 = 99- 30 B = Starshine
    
    I now predict this decay for Feb 18 12:58 +-21h while SpaceCom, in its
    first prediction, gives Feb 18 11:50 +-2d. Although there was another
    geomagnetic storm around noon UTC today, its effect is not yet obvious
    in Starshine's orbit. Instead, my shift to an earlier decay time results
    from a modification in my analysis to better handle such an almost
    perfectly circular orbit.
    
    
    #25911 = 99- 49 E = Globalstar 33 Soyuz r
    
    My current prediction is for decay at Feb 17 16:07 +-16h.
    
    
    Check http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/ for more info.
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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