Starshine decay Forecast Feb 16

From: Harro.Zimmer (Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de)
Date: Wed Feb 16 2000 - 08:35:33 PST

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    Report time 16:00 UTC
    1999-030B (#25769) Starshine 
    
    Against my optimistic view yesterday we saw later an impressive divergence
    between  the three predictions. A careful analysis based on the ELSETs
    00046.542...  -  00047.218... don't confirm the SpaceCom forecast for a
    decay around 21:06 UTC.
    I was checking two different atmosphere models. My standard atmosphere
    (MSIS-90) delivers:  
                       18 February, 14:24 UTC +/- 05 hours (21.6S, 354.2E)
    The second model (Jacchia 71) delivers:
                       18 February, 17:05 UTC +/- 05 hours (49.4S, 297.1E)
    
    Harro
    
    Harro.Zimmer@t-online.de
    Berlin, Germany 
    
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