SatEvo decay list #94

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sat Feb 26 2000 - 03:48:45 PST

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    SatEvo decay list #94  (issued 2000 February 26)
    
    This list of my satellite decay (re-entry) predictions and analyses is
    posted to the satellite observers mailing list, SeeSat-L, and to the
    Usenet newsgroup sci.astro.satellites.visual-observe.
    Information about SeeSat-L is available at
       http://www.satellite.eu.org/seesat/seesatindex.html
    
    In most cases, the "Actual?" decay dates are my estimates based on the
    published orbital element sets ("elsets") over the object's final days.
    Objects are included in the "Predicted" column if I anticipate their
    decay by 2000 April 15, although some larger and/or more interesting
    decayers are included beyond that date.
    
    This and other recent decay lists are available on the WWW via my SatEvo
    page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Linked from this page are files containing recent elsets for all the
    Iridium satellites, all the objects in this decay list, plus elsets for
    other selected objects including Mir, ISS, the Shuttle and all newly 
    launched and/or catalogued objects. I also maintain a large file, 
    satbase.tle, containing recent elsets for more than 8,000 satellites. 
    This is available in zipped form from the same address.
    
    I publish my own and SpaceCom's updated predictions for the larger 
    decayers during their final days on my Decay Watch page at
                   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
    This includes my predicted elsets for these objects.
    
    
       #    Designation    Name              ----- Decay (2000) -----
                                                Predicted   Actual?
    
      9854   77- 15 B   Cosmos 895 r                   February 14.31
     19304   61- 15 MD  Transit 4A deb                 February 14? Notes 1,2
     24054   94- 29 DB  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February 14
     17124   86- 19 U   Spot 1 Ariane deb              February 15
     25911   99- 49 E   Glblstar 33 Soyuz r            February 17.72
     24528   94- 29 WC  STEP-2 Pegasus deb             February 18
     25769   99- 30 B   Starshine                      February 18.63
     25752   99- 28 H   USA 144 deb                    February 21.05 Note 2
     20680   74- 89 FE  Thorad Delta 1 deb       March  2
     22876   93- 67 B   Cosmos 2265 r            March  2
     24831   94- 61 E   Cosmos 2292 deb          March  3
     25947   99- 58 E   Glblstar 31 Soyuz r      March  4
     24343   94- 29 NU  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  5
     24230   94- 29 LD  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March  8
       179   61- 15 BD  Transit 4A deb           March 10
     24627   94- 29 AAF STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 10
     24481   94- 29 UE  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 13
     23887   96- 34 F   Gorizont 32 aux motor    March 17
     26060   99- 47 H   Yamal 101 aux motor      March 20
     24612   94- 29 ZQ  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 21
      4134   69- 82 CW  Thorad Agena D deb       March 22
     25965   99- 62 E   Glblstar 29 Soyuz r      March 24
     25905   95- 58 J   Cosmos 2322 Zenit deb    March 24
     24389   94- 29 QS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 25
     24233   94- 29 LG  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 26
     24143   94- 29 GS  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 27
     20919   90- 93 B   Inmarsat2-F1 Delta2 r    March 28
     24112   94- 29 FK  STEP-2 Pegasus deb       March 29
     18590   71- 15 DJ  Cosmos 397 deb           April  2
     25393   98- 42 E   Tubsat N SSN-23 deb      April  2
     11331   79- 32 A   Cosmos 1093              April  5
     22457   92- 93 EW  Cosmos 2227 Zenit deb    April  6
     20854   90- 81 S   FY-1B CZ deb             April  7
     24314   96- 55 B   Echostar 2 Ariane 42P r  April 12
     15977   85- 74 A   Molniya 1-64             April 15?
     20966   90-104 A   Cosmos 2106              April 22
     22033   92- 41 D   Insat 2A Spelda          April 26
     20704   90- 54 E   Gorizont 20 aux motor    April 30
     20338   89- 94 A   Molniya 3-36               May 1?
     10135   77- 61 B   Cosmos 925 r              June
     15983   85- 74 D   Molniya 1-64 r2           June
     16934   86- 68 A   Molniya 1-68              June
     20339   89- 94 B   Molniya 3-36 r            June
     22726   93- 48 D   Insat 2B Spelda           June
     23834   96- 19 B   GPS 2-25 Delta 2 r1       June
     25235   98- 12 C   SNOE Pegasus r            June
     26085   00-  8 E   Globalstar A Delta r      June
     10860   78- 45 A   Cosmos 1005               July
     13967   83- 25 D   Molniya 1-57 r2           July
     23502   95-  8 B   Cosmos 2306 r             July
     24771   97- 16 D   Thaicom 3 Spelda          July
     24878   97- 35 C   GPS 2R-2 r2 (PAM-D)       July
     11268   79- 12 A   Cosmos 1077             August
     11629   79- 99 A   Cosmos 1145             August
     20399   89-101 E   Cosmos 2054 aux motor   August
     20698   90- 61 F   Cosmos 2085 aux motor   August
     24321   96- 56 C   GPS 2-27 Delta 2 r2  September
     20255   89- 78 A   Molniya 1-76           October
     21025   90-112 F   Raduga 26 aux motor    October
     25032   97- 67 C   GPS 2-28 Delta 2 r2    October
     25123   97- 85 A   Early Bird             October
     23941   96- 37 B   TOMS r                November
    
    Notes
    
    1. No recent elsets.
    
    2. SpaceCom has yet to confirm this decay.
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
     Alan Pickup | COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N  3d11m51.2s W   156m asl
     Edinburgh   | Tel: +44 (0)131 477 9144     Fax: +44 (0)870 0520750
     Scotland    | SatEvo page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    
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