Decay watch; 2001 Feb 14

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 14 2001 - 11:49:12 PST

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    See my updated Decay Watch page for more predicted elsets for the
    following two decayers...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22986 = 94-  8 F = Raduga 1-3 Proton deb
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 14 11:13     Feb 15 11:35 +-15h        3.5 N   157.1 W
    SatEvo     Feb 14 19:25     Feb 15 10:28 +-6h        40.4 N    18.0 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Raduga 1-3 Proton deb F                          605 x 118 km
    1 22986U 94008F   01045.54112680  .20885638  10113-4  56869-3 0  2265
    2 22986  46.4284 163.2728 0361124  85.4962 278.8370 15.69011838112974
    
    SatEvo prediction:
    ..(ends)
    Raduga 1-3 Proton deb F                          277 x 108 km
    1 22986U 94008F   01046.35562969  .84524223  17081+1  77203-3 0 92265
    2 22986  46.4115 158.4828 0128883  90.2769 271.2003 16.30099904113101
    Raduga 1-3 Proton deb F                          210 x 104 km
    1 22986U 94008F   01046.41659238 1.52927686  83266+1  89536-3 0 92264
    2 22986  46.4084 158.1020 0081322  90.6572 270.2749 16.43450080113116
    
    Note: The latest elset has this running 18 sec late against yesterday's
    prediction. My estimate is for this to decay to the W of Portugal on a
    track towards N Morocco at 10:31 on the last of these SatEvo-predicted
    revs.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #25314 = 98- 24 D = Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    
    SpaceCom   Feb 14 01:14     Feb 17 15:13 +-2d         5.8 S   171.5 E
    SatEvo     Feb 14 19:40     Feb 17 18:46 +-22h
    
    Latest elset:
    Nilesat Ariane deb (Spelda)                      974 x 158 km
    1 25314U 98024D   01045.48347698  .10195645 -26601-4  50646-2 0  5100
    2 25314   6.6374 273.3088 0587732 353.3046   6.0063 15.00261311 55870
    
    Note: This low-inclination decayers enters eclipse while southbound 
    near 0.5 deg S in the evening. eclipse exit occurs northbound near
    4 deg S before dawn.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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    This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Wed Feb 14 2001 - 11:52:48 PST