Decay watch: 2001 Feb 28

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Wed Feb 28 2001 - 12:30:00 PST

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    From my updated Decay Watch page...
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #22521 = 93- 11 A = Astro D (Asuka)
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 27 03:58     Mar  2 03:26 +-2d        21.0 S    66.2 E
    SatEvo     Feb 28 20:25     Mar  2 00:29 +-9h
    
    Latest elset:
    Astro D          4.7  1.3  0.0  6.7 d  5.7       226 x 219 km
    1 22521U 93011A   01059.38498881  .03030846  23511-1  21704-2 0  5731
    2 22521  31.0732  70.3953 0005958 225.0166 135.1215 16.18957425443070
    
    SatEvo prediction: See my Decay Watch page.
    ..(ends)
    Astro D          4.7  1.3  0.0  6.7 d  5.7       173 x 169 km
    1 22521U 93011A   01060.79656690  .17256024  20116+0  15027-2 0 95731
    2 22521  31.0694  59.5956 0002883 241.8375 118.1333 16.38107626443301
    Astro D          4.7  1.3  0.0  6.7 d  5.7       143 x 141 km
    1 22521U 93011A   01060.97885190  .66143136  45014+1  94982-3 0 95736
    2 22521  31.0675  58.1680 0001589 244.0613 115.9222 16.49021151443336
    
    Note: This enters eclipse while northbound near 8 deg N in the evening 
    sky and it leaves eclipse at a similar latitude southbound before dawn.
    The latest elset shows it running 17 sec early against yesterday's
    forecast. Again, fresh elsets are overdue.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26062 = 00-  4 B = OCS
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 28 17:32     Mar  4 17:16 +-2d        12.3 S    58.1 W
    SatEvo     Feb xx xx:xx     Mar  5 18:31 +-1.3d
    
    Latest elset:
    OCS              3.6  0.0  0.0  4.1 v  3.7       452 x 408 km
    1 26062U 00004B   01059.68862305  .02350268  00000-0  42438-1 0  5470
    2 26062 100.1995 354.3374 0032179 120.8983 239.5398 15.45434585 58157
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    
    Note: Eclipse entry occurs southbound near 72 deg N while exit is 
    southbound near 62 deg S.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #26714 = 01-  8 B = Progress M-44 Soyuz rocket
    
    Final decay analyses:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                   UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SpaceCom   Feb 28 02:26     Feb 28 02:17 +-7m        45.9 S    28.6 E
    SatEvo     Feb 28 20:15     Feb 28 02:22 +-20m       32.9 S    54.7 E
    
    Final elset:
    Progress M-44 Soyuz r                            136 x 125 km
    1 26714U 01008B   01059.04560586  .36767145  12746-4  23262-3 0   125
    2 26714  51.6361 279.0480 0008320 102.1012 258.0446 16.53375837   281
    
    Note: No SpaceCom decay warnings were posted on OIG's site during
    most of the final day of this object. The final elset shows the rocket
    running 2 min early against yesterday's prediction, though the latter
    had to be made using elsets already more than 12 hours old. I show it 
    decaying northbound over the SW Indian Ocean towards the end of the 
    above orbit.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55d53m48.7s N   3d11m51.2s W      156m asl
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo & elsets:    http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
             *
    
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