Decay watch: 2003 February 2

From: Alan Pickup (alan@wingar.demon.co.uk)
Date: Sun Feb 02 2003 - 10:54:51 EST

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     From the latest update to my Decay Watch page:
    
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #18083 = 87- 48 A = Cosmos 1849
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Jan 31 08:59     Feb  2 09:06 +-1d        60.6 S   148.5 W
    SatEvo     Feb  2 15:30     Feb  3 21:05 +-11h       46.6 S    10.7 W
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 1849                                      3634 x 83 km
    1 18083U 87048A   03033.46034043  .91261947 -12823-4  14972-2 0   165
    2 18083  61.9907 228.7771 2155450 211.3907 137.2436 11.61403031115332
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    Cosmos 1849                                      1020 x 79 km
    1 18083U 87048A   03034.77078553 2.89666087  33707+1  17251-2 0 90146
    2 18083  61.8394 225.3491 0679440 211.6091 144.1268 15.05657338115500
    Cosmos 1849                                      758 x 77 km
    1 18083U 87048A   03034.83649939 3.94795864  88540+1  18320-2 0 90141
    2 18083  61.8216 225.1084 0500981 211.6383 145.2515 15.49598725115516
    Cosmos 1849                                      366 x 75 km
    1 18083U 87048A   03034.90009434 9.16429377  50000+2  23152-2 0 90142
    2 18083  61.8030 224.8567 0220895 211.6691 146.9830 16.19672858115524
    
    Note: In my judgement, the drag is so severe that this is unlikely to
    survive into the final predicted rev, above. Instead, I estimate that
    it will decay near perigee on the previous orbit, southbound over the
    S Atlantic. The prediction remains uncertain.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    Object: #27614 = 02- 59 B = Cosmos 2393 r1
    
    Decay predictions:
    Source   Prediction made    Predicted decay at      Latitude Longitude
                    UTC                UTC                  deg      deg
    SCC        Feb  2 07:54     Feb  3 08:18 +-15h       57.9 S    49.0 E
    SatEvo     Feb  2 15:40     Feb  3 08:00 +-5h        13.2 S     4.4 E
    
    Latest elset:
    Cosmos 2393 r1   4.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d    8       217 x 163 km
    1 27614U 02059B   03033.56845073  .05850853  86278-5  86785-3 0  1116
    2 27614  62.7923  73.8291 0041048 108.6935 251.8712 16.31066642  6355
    
    SatEvo prediction: See Decay Watch page.
    (ends)
    Cosmos 2393 r1   4.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d    8       156 x 133 km
    1 27614U 02059B   03034.24013961  .34868358  12119+1  45788-3 0 91111
    2 27614  62.7869  71.0428 0017519 108.8318 251.3583 16.47906949  6462
    Cosmos 2393 r1   4.0  2.0  0.0  5.0 d    8       133 x 120 km
    1 27614U 02059B   03034.30070263 1.22151602  29458+2  64318-3 0 91116
    2 27614  62.7850  70.7867 0009575 108.8446 251.2593 16.54874271  6471
    
    Note: I have this decaying southbound off the coast of Angola on the
    last of my SatEvo-predicted orbits.
    _____________________________________________________________________
    
    
    Alan
    -- 
    Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707:  55.8968N   3.1989W   +208m   (WGS84 datum)
    Edinburgh  / SatEvo Home Page:   http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
    Scotland  / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
              *
    
    
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