Here is another summary from my updated Decay Watch page, now including
the first notice for the Progress M-47 rocket.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #18083 = 87- 48 A = Cosmos 1849
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Feb 3 14:44 Feb 3 21:01 +-4h 59.7 S 23.0 E
SatEvo Feb 3 20:10 Feb 3 20:56 +-90m 45.9 S 9.5 W
Latest elset:
Cosmos 1849 1001 x 84 km
1 18083U 87048A 03034.76463485 .14642508 58771-5 11445-3 0 352
2 18083 61.8391 225.2017 0662645 212.9593 142.8520 15.07977597115500
SatEvo prediction:
Cosmos 1849 755 x 82 km
1 18083U 87048A 03034.83031724 3.84529551 86768+1 22768-2 0 90292
2 18083 61.8452 224.9902 0495452 213.9435 142.7863 15.49413370115513
Cosmos 1849 374 x 79 km
1 18083U 87048A 03034.89396329 8.78897939 50000+2 29415-2 0 90296
2 18083 61.8268 224.7388 0223273 213.9738 144.5763 16.17376532115524
Note: While there is a chance that this might survive into the final
SatEvo-predicted rev, above, I favour a decay following perigee on
the penultimate orbit. This puts it southbound over the S Atlantic.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27614 = 02- 59 B = Cosmos 2393 r1
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Feb 3 06:48 Feb 3 06:43 +-7m 41.8 S 45.2 E
SatEvo Feb 3 20:25 Feb 3 06:31 +-20m 10.0 S 25.3 E
Final elset:
Cosmos 2393 r1 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.0 d 8 140 x 120 km
1 27614U 02059B 03034.25176727 .32080998 90447-5 19092-3 0 1166
2 27614 62.7796 70.9928 0014982 115.0502 317.8903 16.53581105 6464
Note: I have this decaying southbound over the Democratic Republic of
the Congo, Africa, on the orbit given by the final elset, above.
_____________________________________________________________________
Object: #27682 = 03- 6 B = Progress M-47 Soyuz r
Decay predictions:
Source Prediction made Predicted decay at Latitude Longitude
UTC UTC deg deg
SCC Feb 3 14:35 Feb 4 13:03 +-18h 48.8 S 67.4 W
SatEvo Feb 3 20:40 Feb 4 14:04 +-1d 9.5 S 168.0 E
Latest elset:
Progress M-47 Soyuz r 219 x 176 km
1 27682U 03006B 03034.27133660 .05989797 12160-4 12842-2 0 91
2 27682 51.6513 333.1475 0032859 74.1040 286.2891 16.28145576 121
SatEvo prediction: See Decay watch page.
(ends)
Progress M-47 Soyuz r 150 x 135 km
1 27682U 03006B 03035.49341322 .30828466 91443+0 37804-3 0 90096
2 27682 51.6453 326.2872 0012114 79.2174 280.9190 16.48810877 324
Progress M-47 Soyuz r 134 x 124 km
1 27682U 03006B 03035.55392668 .62301694 33466+1 35787-3 0 90096
2 27682 51.6440 325.9397 0007968 79.4764 280.6133 16.54050600 338
Note: It is very odd that the latest elset for this is 14 hours old.
I have this decaying following the southbound equator crossing in
the orbit given by my final predicted elset above. This puts it over
the western Pacific.
_____________________________________________________________________
Alan
--
Alan Pickup / COSPAR 2707: 55.8968N 3.1989W +208m (WGS84 datum)
Edinburgh / SatEvo Home Page: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/
Scotland / Decay Watch: http://www.wingar.demon.co.uk/satevo/dkwatch/
*
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This archive was generated by hypermail 2b29 : Mon Feb 03 2003 - 16:09:40 EST